2014 · Week 12

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Zach Mettenberger

24·43

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Mark Sanchez

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -11

Total

49

Model margin

+6.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapEagles
  • -0.122EPA / play-0.005
  • 39.5%Success rate43.7%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.113
  • 8.4%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -2.82CPOE-0.76
  • 29.7%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.88
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48 points. PHI are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PHI @ TEN24–20PHI
2022 · W13TEN @ PHI10–35PHI
2018 · W4PHI @ TEN23–26TEN
2010 · W7PHI @ TEN19–37TEN
2006 · W11TEN @ PHI31–13TEN
2002 · W1PHI @ TEN24–27TEN
2000 · W14TEN @ PHI15–13TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 14:4700Punt0–7
TENQ1 14:4310Punt0–7
TENQ1 14:362-8Punt0–7
PHIQ1 13:37851Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 10:4437Punt0–14
PHIQ1 9:06620Punt0–14
TENQ1 7:2034Punt0–14
PHIQ1 6:18935Field goal0–17
TENQ1 3:2539Punt0–17
PHIQ1 1:0122Turnover0–17
TENQ1 0:30340Touchdown7–17
PHIQ2 14:51773Field goal7–20
TENQ2 11:29677Touchdown14–20
PHIQ2 8:221069Touchdown14–27
TENQ2 4:351078Field goal17–27
PHIQ2 0:51649Missed field goal17–27
TENQ2 0:0200End of half17–27
TENQ3 15:00513Turnover17–27
PHIQ3 12:32443Touchdown17–34
TENQ3 11:2779Punt17–34
PHIQ3 7:26623Turnover17–34
TENQ3 5:001-6Turnover17–34
PHIQ3 4:471356Field goal17–37
TENQ4 14:143-10Punt17–37
PHIQ4 12:26530Field goal17–40
TENQ4 10:18967Turnover on downs17–40
PHIQ4 8:113-2Punt17–40
TENQ4 7:20751Touchdown24–40
PHIQ4 5:43615Field goal24–43
TENQ4 2:26422Turnover24–43
PHIQ4 2:0400Punt24–43
TENQ4 0:2600End of half24–43

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Mettenberger20/3934521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bishop Sankey10373.70
Shonn Greene6152.51
Dexter McCluster122.00
Zach Mettenberger2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker591550
Justin Hunter410641
Nate Washington46630
Kendall Wright16280
Dexter McCluster34151
Bishop Sankey22140

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez30/4330712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy211306.21
Darren Sproles6254.21
Chris Polk750.70
Mark Sanchez441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews68770
Jeremy Maclin68590
Riley Cooper36490
Brent Celek57480
Zach Ertz46300
Chris Polk11150
Darren Sproles34140
James Casey11141
LeSean McCoy1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +115.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.64
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+6.81