Closing spread
PHI -11
Total
49
Model margin
+6.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.122EPA / play-0.005
- 39.5%Success rate43.7%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.9%
- -2.82CPOE-0.76
- 29.7%Third-down rate44.2%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.18Points / drive1.88
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. PHI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Mettenberger | 20/39 | 345 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Sankey | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 9 | 155 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 4 | 10 | 64 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 1 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Bishop Sankey | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 30/43 | 307 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 21 | 130 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Chris Polk | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 6 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.64
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.81