Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.003
- 39.2%Success rate40.3%
- +0.085EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.138
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- 42.4%Third-down rate41.3%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 1.28Points / drive1.62
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. PHI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 23/37 | 210 | 0 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 1/2 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 32 | 101 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 7 | 8 | 93 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 7 | 13 | 59 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/31 | 239 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Darnell Autry | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Lewis | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 5 | 10 | 55 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 1 | 1 | 45 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Darnell Autry | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.76