2000 · Week 14

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

15·13

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 30°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapEagles
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.003
  • 39.2%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.138
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 42.4%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.62
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.085

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48 points. PHI are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PHI @ TEN24–20PHI
2022 · W13TEN @ PHI10–35PHI
2018 · W4PHI @ TEN23–26TEN
2014 · W12TEN @ PHI24–43PHI
2010 · W7PHI @ TEN19–37TEN
2006 · W11TEN @ PHI31–13TEN
2002 · W1PHI @ TEN24–27TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
TENQ1 14:0017Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 13:50636Field goal0–3
TENQ1 10:48726Punt0–3
PHIQ1 6:18425Punt0–3
TENQ1 4:561664Field goal3–3
PHIQ2 10:46626Punt3–3
TENQ2 7:271556Field goal6–3
PHIQ2 1:30663Field goal6–6
TENQ2 0:1826End of half6–6
TENQ3 15:001271Field goal9–6
PHIQ3 8:23614Punt9–6
TENQ3 4:47524Punt9–6
PHIQ3 2:22517Punt9–6
TENQ4 14:30514Punt9–6
PHIQ4 11:0735Punt9–6
TENQ4 10:2532Punt9–6
PHIQ4 8:493-7Punt9–6
TENQ4 7:35424Field goal12–6
PHIQ4 5:23877Touchdown12–13
TENQ4 3:1130Punt12–13
PHIQ4 2:3031Punt12–13
TENQ4 1:43837Field goal15–13

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair23/3721000
Neil O'Donnell1/21400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George321013.20
Steve McNair4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason78930
Frank Wycheck713590
Eddie George45240
Chris Sanders36220
Yancey Thigpen13220
Mike Green0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb18/3123900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donovan McNabb7395.61
Darnell Autry6142.30
Brian Mitchell133.00
Stanley Pritchett300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Lewis47550
Torrance Small510550
Todd Pinkston11450
Charles Johnson45410
Darnell Autry24300
Cecil Martin1180
Na Brown1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.76