Closing spread
NYG -4
Total
45
Model margin
+1.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.086
- 45.6%Success rate37.6%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.118
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- -3.95CPOE-5.37
- 38.8%Third-down rate32.7%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.77Points / drive1.35
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. TEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/28 | 143 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 25 | 82 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 24/35 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Travis Henry | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.97