Closing spread
NYG -4
Total
45
Model margin
+1.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.086
- 45.6%Success rate37.6%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.118
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- -3.95CPOE-5.37
- 38.8%Third-down rate32.7%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.77Points / drive1.35
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–3 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. TEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 11:49 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:51 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 10:02 | 9 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 4:22 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q1 2:12 | 10 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| TEN | Q2 12:22 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| NYG | Q2 12:07 | 7 | 29 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| TEN | Q2 8:05 | 12 | 68 | Turnover on downs | 21–0 |
| NYG | Q2 1:06 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–0 |
| TEN | Q2 0:38 | 2 | 24 | Missed field goal | 21–0 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 21–0 |
| TEN | Q3 10:45 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 21–0 |
| NYG | Q3 7:53 | 14 | 74 | Turnover on downs | 21–0 |
| TEN | Q4 14:56 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 21–0 |
| NYG | Q4 13:49 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 21–0 |
| TEN | Q4 12:55 | 9 | 54 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| NYG | Q4 9:35 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–7 |
| TEN | Q4 7:46 | 6 | 36 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| NYG | Q4 5:24 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 21–14 |
| TEN | Q4 3:07 | 9 | 76 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| NYG | Q4 0:44 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 21–21 |
| TEN | Q4 0:23 | 2 | 18 | Field goal | 21–24 |
| NYG | Q4 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/28 | 143 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 25 | 82 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 24/35 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Travis Henry | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.97