Closing spread
TEN -5
Total
38
Model margin
+4.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.033
- 40.1%Success rate39.2%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- 39.9%Third-down rate42.4%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 1.73Points / drive1.28
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–3 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. TEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 8:35 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 6:31 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 4:31 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 3:41 | 19 | 98 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NYG | Q2 8:48 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–14 |
| TEN | Q2 7:43 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| NYG | Q2 2:54 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| TEN | Q2 1:54 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 0–21 |
| NYG | Q2 1:00 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| TEN | Q2 0:16 | 2 | 15 | Missed field goal | 0–21 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–21 |
| TEN | Q3 11:31 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–21 |
| NYG | Q3 7:35 | 7 | 42 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| TEN | Q3 5:25 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| NYG | Q4 12:26 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 7–28 |
| TEN | Q4 11:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–28 |
| NYG | Q4 9:32 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| TEN | Q4 7:04 | 8 | 40 | Turnover | 14–28 |
| NYG | Q4 4:41 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 14–28 |
| TEN | Q4 4:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–28 |
| NYG | Q4 1:52 | 8 | 32 | Turnover | 14–28 |
| TEN | Q4 0:22 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 17/36 | 197 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 5 | 10 | 81 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 4 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Pete Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 24/35 | 293 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 35 | 125 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 7 | 103 | 1 |
| Erron Kinney | 5 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 5 | 7 | 42 | 2 |
| Carl Pickens | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Bashir Yamini | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.81