Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
34
Model margin
+1.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.008
- 44.9%Success rate41.7%
- +0.151EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.095EPA / rush-0.177
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- 43.7%Third-down rate38.8%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate44.5%
- 1.58Points / drive1.46
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.038EPA / play allowed-0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 30/43 | 334 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 12 | 15 | 116 | 1 |
| Drew Bennett | 4 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| John Simon | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Eddie Berlin | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 22/36 | 283 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 22 | 64 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 5 | 7 | 104 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 5 | 9 | 93 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 7 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daryl Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.23