Closing spread
NYG -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+11.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.141EPA / play+0.363
- 44.0%Success rate59.1%
- -0.152EPA / dropback+0.667
- -0.096EPA / rush+0.059
- 4.0%Explosive rate6.1%
- +0.39CPOE+13.38
- 33.3%Third-down rate90.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 0.99Points / drive3.97
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
77.6%
Expected total
52.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+9.33
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+11.47