2026 · Week 3

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

7·12

Giants

New York

QB Jameis Winston

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYG -2.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapGiants
  • -0.083EPA / play+0.027
  • 41.6%Success rate42.9%
  • -0.067EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.102
  • 7.0%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.46CPOE-2.00
  • 35.8%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 52.6%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.55Points / drive2.15
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W1NYG @ TEN21–20NYG
2018 · W15TEN @ NYG17–0TEN
2014 · W14NYG @ TEN36–7NYG
2010 · W3TEN @ NYG29–10TEN
2006 · W12NYG @ TEN21–24TEN
2002 · W13TEN @ NYG32–29TEN
2000 · W5NYG @ TEN14–28TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–NYG
TENQ1 15:0000Punt0–0
NYGQ1 14:5169Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:1335Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:49750Field goal0–3
TENQ1 6:3437Punt0–3
NYGQ1 4:1136Punt0–3
TENQ1 2:4331Punt0–3
NYGQ1 1:104-5Punt0–3
TENQ2 13:3833Punt0–3
NYGQ2 11:591139Field goal0–6
TENQ2 4:49416Punt0–6
NYGQ2 2:5146Punt0–6
TENQ2 1:24522Missed field goal0–6
NYGQ2 0:41630Field goal0–9
NYGQ3 15:001379Field goal0–12
TENQ3 6:561268Turnover on downs0–12
NYGQ3 1:0558Punt0–12
TENQ4 12:431476Touchdown7–12
NYGQ4 5:35417Punt7–12
TENQ4 3:031364Turnover7–12
NYGQ4 0:1700End of half7–12

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward23/3618111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard17744.40
Tyjae Spears351.70
Cam Ward122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Carnell Tate69580
Wan'Dale Robinson711571
Tony Pollard44220
Daniel Bellinger22160
Gunnar Helm24140
Elic Ayomanor13110
Chimere Dike1130
Calvin Ridley0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston14/2211800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Skattebo20603.00
Najee Harris9525.80
Jameis Winston2147.00
Darnell Mooney199.00
Tyrone Tracy Jr.133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cam Skattebo34400
Malik Nabers56260
Darnell Mooney23200
Malachi Fields22190
Isaiah Likely25130
Odell Beckham Jr.0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.13