Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+0.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play+0.016
- 42.6%Success rate39.9%
- +0.023EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- +1.50CPOE+0.30
- 40.0%Third-down rate36.5%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.83Points / drive1.89
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 12/20 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 33 | 170 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Dion Lewis | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/44 | 229 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8 | 12 | 75 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 10 | 25 | 0 |
| Jawill Davis | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.83
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.67