2018 · Week 15

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

17·0

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

Total

42

Model margin

+0.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapGiants
  • -0.029EPA / play+0.016
  • 42.6%Success rate39.9%
  • +0.023EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.054
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +1.50CPOE+0.30
  • 40.0%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.89
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3TEN @ NYG7–12NYG
2022 · W1NYG @ TEN21–20NYG
2014 · W14NYG @ TEN36–7NYG
2010 · W3TEN @ NYG29–10TEN
2006 · W12NYG @ TEN21–24TEN
2002 · W13TEN @ NYG32–29TEN
2000 · W5NYG @ TEN14–28TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–NYG
TENQ1 15:00839Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ1 11:2532Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:281570Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 2:43740Punt7–0
TENQ2 13:39543Punt7–0
NYGQ2 11:22948Punt7–0
TENQ2 6:31621Punt7–0
NYGQ2 3:0233Punt7–0
TENQ2 2:09625Punt7–0
NYGQ2 0:47826End of half7–0
NYGQ3 15:001161Turnover7–0
TENQ3 9:03736Punt7–0
NYGQ3 5:273-2Turnover7–0
TENQ3 5:07612Touchdown14–0
NYGQ3 2:2037Punt14–0
TENQ3 0:4432Punt14–0
NYGQ4 14:0448Punt14–0
TENQ4 12:091154Field goal17–0
NYGQ4 5:061567Turnover on downs17–0
TENQ4 1:4700End of half17–0

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota12/208800
Derrick Henry1/1600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry331705.22
Dion Lewis7355.00
Marcus Mariota2115.50
Blaine Gabbert3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis36330
Luke Stocker22270
Taywan Taylor25170
Dion Lewis3390
Tajae Sharpe1160
MyCole Pruitt1220
Derrick Henry1100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning21/4422901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley14312.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram812750
Bennie Fowler24430
Sterling Shepard29370
Russell Shepard24280
Saquon Barkley410250
Jawill Davis22130
Corey Coleman1280
Rhett Ellison0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.83
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.67