Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play-0.066
- 45.0%Success rate41.2%
- +0.058EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.68CPOE-0.94
- 37.7%Third-down rate37.1%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 2.02Points / drive1.46
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. TEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 17/21 | 188 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 164 | 9.1 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 4 | 71 | 1 |
| Richie James | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 6 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Myarick | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/33 | 266 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Philips | 6 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 3 | 4 | 61 | 2 |
| Treylon Burks | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Cody Hollister | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.64