2022 · Week 1

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

21·20

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

TEN -5.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapTitans
  • +0.033EPA / play-0.066
  • 45.0%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.058EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.004EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.68CPOE-0.94
  • 37.7%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.46
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. TEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3TEN @ NYG7–12NYG
2018 · W15TEN @ NYG17–0TEN
2014 · W14NYG @ TEN36–7NYG
2010 · W3TEN @ NYG29–10TEN
2006 · W12NYG @ TEN21–24TEN
2002 · W13TEN @ NYG32–29TEN
2000 · W5NYG @ TEN14–28TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–TEN
NYGQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:48545Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 9:48621Punt0–7
TENQ1 6:1035Punt0–7
NYGQ1 4:3036Punt0–7
TENQ1 2:09965Field goal0–10
NYGQ2 12:35619Turnover0–10
TENQ2 10:00732Field goal0–13
NYGQ2 6:57521Punt0–13
TENQ2 4:03735Punt0–13
NYGQ2 0:59555End of half0–13
TENQ3 15:0039Punt0–13
NYGQ3 12:45485Touchdown6–13
TENQ3 11:1638Punt6–13
NYGQ3 9:28264Touchdown13–13
TENQ3 8:481195Touchdown13–20
NYGQ3 2:5433Punt13–20
TENQ3 0:42312Punt13–20
NYGQ4 14:23735Punt13–20
NYGQ4 10:2833Turnover13–20
TENQ4 8:50517Punt13–20
NYGQ4 5:271273Touchdown21–20
TENQ4 1:06836Missed field goal21–20

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones17/2118821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley181649.11
Daniel Jones6254.20
Matt Breida5244.80
Kadarius Toney22311.50
Richie James122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard24711
Richie James56590
Saquon Barkley67300
Kenny Golladay22220
Wan'Dale Robinson1150
Chris Myarick1111

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill20/3326620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry21823.90
Dontrell Hilliard284.00
Ryan Tannehill273.50
Chig Okonkwo1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Philips69660
Dontrell Hilliard34612
Treylon Burks35550
Cody Hollister11220
Geoff Swaim34190
Robert Woods12130
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine12130
Chig Okonkwo11110
Austin Hooper1260
Derrick Henry0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.64