Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.006
- 40.0%Success rate44.3%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.153EPA / rush-0.118
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.7%
- -0.87CPOE+2.60
- 34.8%Third-down rate37.0%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.83Points / drive1.81
- 2.9%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 10/16 | 118 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 32 | 125 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Javon Ringer | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gage | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Bo Scaife | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 34/48 | 386 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 15 | 88 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 9 | 12 | 103 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 3 | 7 | 88 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 6 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 7 | 11 | 56 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.56