2010 · Week 3

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

29·10

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 70°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapGiants
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.006
  • 40.0%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.081
  • -0.153EPA / rush-0.118
  • 9.4%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -0.87CPOE+2.60
  • 34.8%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.81
  • 2.9%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3TEN @ NYG7–12NYG
2022 · W1NYG @ TEN21–20NYG
2018 · W15TEN @ NYG17–0TEN
2014 · W14NYG @ TEN36–7NYG
2006 · W12NYG @ TEN21–24TEN
2002 · W13TEN @ NYG32–29TEN
2000 · W5NYG @ TEN14–28TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00419Turnover0–0
TENQ1 12:48621Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 9:29676Turnover3–0
TENQ1 5:124-7Punt3–0
NYGQ1 3:37621Missed field goal3–0
TENQ2 14:061152Touchdown10–0
NYGQ2 8:43723Field goal10–3
TENQ2 4:12412Punt10–3
NYGQ2 2:48963Touchdown10–10
TENQ2 0:3600End of half10–10
TENQ3 15:00619Punt10–10
NYGQ3 12:1330Safety12–10
TENQ3 10:39651Touchdown19–10
NYGQ3 7:43869Turnover19–10
TENQ3 3:19311Punt19–10
NYGQ3 1:47754Missed field goal19–10
TENQ4 13:291146Field goal22–10
NYGQ4 7:50960Turnover on downs22–10
TENQ4 5:56555Touchdown29–10
NYGQ4 4:02624Turnover on downs29–10
TENQ4 2:56411Punt29–10
NYGQ4 1:39662End of half29–10

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young10/1611810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson321253.92
Javon Ringer6305.00
Vince Young362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Gage34390
Nate Washington35300
Kenny Britt22261
Bo Scaife22230
Chris Johnson0100
Craig Stevens0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning34/4838602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw15885.91
Brandon Jacobs4174.30
Eli Manning122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith9121030
Kevin Boss37880
Mario Manningham69780
Hakeem Nicks711560
Ahmad Bradshaw55300
Travis Beckum22230
Brandon Jacobs1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.56