2014 · Week 14

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

36·7

Titans

Tennessee

QB Zach Mettenberger

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

-1.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapTitans
  • -0.014EPA / play-0.122
  • 41.2%Success rate39.5%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.190
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +0.79CPOE-2.82
  • 43.5%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.18
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. TEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3TEN @ NYG7–12NYG
2022 · W1NYG @ TEN21–20NYG
2018 · W15TEN @ NYG17–0TEN
2010 · W3TEN @ NYG29–10TEN
2006 · W12NYG @ TEN21–24TEN
2002 · W13TEN @ NYG32–29TEN
2000 · W5NYG @ TEN14–28TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–TEN
NYGQ1 15:001378Field goal3–0
TENQ1 7:5936Punt3–0
NYGQ1 6:11472Touchdown10–0
TENQ1 4:413-1Punt10–0
NYGQ1 2:4031Punt16–0
TENQ1 1:181-5Opp touchdown17–0
TENQ1 1:071366Missed field goal17–0
NYGQ2 8:461562Field goal20–0
TENQ2 1:383-3Punt20–0
NYGQ2 1:10745Field goal23–0
TENQ2 0:0700End of half23–0
TENQ3 15:0037Punt23–0
NYGQ3 13:27359Touchdown30–0
TENQ3 12:06430Punt30–0
NYGQ3 10:0031Opp touchdown30–7
NYGQ3 8:36422Punt30–7
TENQ3 5:483-2Punt30–7
NYGQ3 4:43730Field goal33–7
TENQ3 0:3333Turnover33–7
NYGQ4 14:11726Field goal36–7
TENQ4 11:22629Turnover on downs36–7
NYGQ4 9:3032Punt36–7
TENQ4 8:29751Turnover36–7
NYGQ4 5:2637Punt36–7
TENQ4 3:15827Turnover on downs36–7
NYGQ4 0:5500End of half36–7

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning26/4226011
Odell Beckham Jr.0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Williams241315.51
Odell Beckham Jr.199.00
Rashad Jennings252.50
Orleans Darkwa100.00
Ryan Nassib2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.11151301
Preston Parker55600
Larry Donnell47280
Rashad Jennings11170
Andre Williams35160
Rueben Randle1390
Daniel Fells0100
Kevin Ogletree0300
Adrien Robinson1100
Orleans Darkwa0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Mettenberger14/2412501
Jake Locker9/118101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jake Locker22814.00
Bishop Sankey9252.80
Leon Washington294.50
Zach Mettenberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derek Hagan67620
Nate Washington33560
Kris Durham33300
Delanie Walker410270
Leon Washington23100
Dexter McCluster24100
Bishop Sankey2320
Chase Coffman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.64
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.88