Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play-0.122
- 41.2%Success rate39.5%
- +0.072EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.190
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.4%
- +0.79CPOE-2.82
- 43.5%Third-down rate29.7%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.78Points / drive1.18
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. TEN are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 26/42 | 260 | 1 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Williams | 24 | 131 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Nassib | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 11 | 15 | 130 | 1 |
| Preston Parker | 5 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrien Robinson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Mettenberger | 14/24 | 125 | 0 | 1 |
| Jake Locker | 9/11 | 81 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Hagan | 6 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 10 | 27 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Coffman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.88