Closing spread
GB -1
Total
39
Model margin
+2.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.067
- 43.0%Success rate40.0%
- +0.057EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.146
- 6.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.38CPOE-5.72
- 44.6%Third-down rate38.9%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate36.6%
- 1.74Points / drive1.28
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.6 points. GB are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 25/35 | 263 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Houston | 22 | 105 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Leon Washington | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/47 | 214 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 14 | 102 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.68