Closing spread
GB -1
Total
39
Model margin
+2.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.067
- 43.0%Success rate40.0%
- +0.057EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.146
- 6.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.38CPOE-5.72
- 44.6%Third-down rate38.9%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate36.6%
- 1.74Points / drive1.28
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. GB are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:55 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 7:08 | 7 | 51 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| GB | Q1 4:45 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:07 | 10 | 88 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| GB | Q2 12:40 | 5 | 50 | Missed field goal | 17–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:07 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 24–0 |
| GB | Q2 6:17 | 5 | 11 | Turnover | 24–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 5:00 | 13 | 77 | Touchdown | 31–0 |
| GB | Q2 0:09 | 1 | 10 | End of half | 31–0 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 50 | Field goal | 31–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 8:32 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 31–3 |
| GB | Q3 8:18 | 10 | 54 | Turnover on downs | 31–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:30 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 31–3 |
| GB | Q3 2:39 | 4 | 37 | Touchdown | 31–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 1:16 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 31–10 |
| GB | Q3 1:15 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 31–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:08 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 38–10 |
| GB | Q4 11:30 | 9 | 54 | Turnover on downs | 38–10 |
| NYJ | Q4 8:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 38–10 |
| GB | Q4 6:42 | 4 | -3 | Turnover | 38–10 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:12 | 5 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 38–10 |
| GB | Q4 2:15 | 10 | 62 | End of half | 38–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 25/35 | 263 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Houston | 22 | 105 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Leon Washington | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/47 | 214 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 14 | 102 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.68