2022 · Week 6

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

27·10

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPackers
  • -0.086EPA / play+0.017
  • 39.1%Success rate46.2%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.009
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -4.97CPOE+0.52
  • 34.3%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 39.8%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.41Points / drive1.91
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. GB are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2GB @ NYJ20–17GB
2018 · W16GB @ NYJ44–38GB
2014 · W2NYJ @ GB24–31GB
2010 · W8GB @ NYJ9–0GB
2006 · W13NYJ @ GB38–10NYJ
2002 · W17GB @ NYJ17–42NYJ
2000 · W1NYJ @ GB20–16NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–GB
GBQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
NYJQ1 14:0339Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:283-3Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:12519Punt0–0
GBQ1 7:48614Punt0–0
NYJQ1 4:403-3Punt0–0
GBQ1 2:22644Missed field goal0–0
NYJQ2 14:5448Punt0–0
GBQ2 12:4142Punt0–0
NYJQ2 10:5938Punt0–0
GBQ2 10:0039Turnover0–0
NYJQ2 8:44520Field goal3–0
GBQ2 5:46729Turnover on downs3–0
NYJQ2 2:19419Missed field goal3–0
GBQ2 0:31546Field goal3–3
NYJQ3 15:0031Punt3–3
GBQ3 13:55611Punt3–3
NYJQ3 10:21474Touchdown10–3
GBQ3 8:1159Opp touchdown17–3
GBQ3 5:43855Touchdown17–10
NYJQ3 2:35566Touchdown24–10
GBQ4 14:521353Turnover on downs24–10
NYJQ4 9:121360Field goal27–10
GBQ4 2:3448Turnover on downs27–10
NYJQ4 1:5700End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson10/1811000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall201165.81
Michael Carter6416.80
Braxton Berrios12020.01
Tyler Conklin111.00
Zach Wilson510.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis24520
C.J. Uzomah22170
Tyler Conklin12160
Garrett Wilson1580
Braxton Berrios1160
Michael Carter1160
Breece Hall2250

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/4124610
Jordan Love2/4800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon10414.10
Aaron Jones9192.10
Aaron Rodgers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Tonyan1012900
Allen Lazard49761
Aaron Jones34250
Romeo Doubs49210
Amari Rodgers11140
AJ Dillon46110
Josiah Deguara1190
Randall Cobb1180
Juwann Winfree0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.54