Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.017
- 39.1%Success rate46.2%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.009
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- -4.97CPOE+0.52
- 34.3%Third-down rate39.3%
- 39.8%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.41Points / drive1.91
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.6 points. GB are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 10/18 | 110 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 20 | 116 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 2 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/41 | 246 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2/4 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Tonyan | 10 | 12 | 90 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 9 | 21 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 4 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Juwann Winfree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.54