2026 · Week 2

Final / OT

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

20·17

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 69°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapJets
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.041
  • 40.0%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.266EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -1.28CPOE+6.05
  • 36.3%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.96Points / drive2.10
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. NYJ are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W6NYJ @ GB27–10NYJ
2018 · W16GB @ NYJ44–38GB
2014 · W2NYJ @ GB24–31GB
2010 · W8GB @ NYJ9–0GB
2006 · W13NYJ @ GB38–10NYJ
2002 · W17GB @ NYJ17–42NYJ
2000 · W1NYJ @ GB20–16NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NYJ
GBQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:201032Punt0–0
GBQ1 7:434-1Punt0–0
NYJQ1 5:38618Punt0–0
GBQ1 2:3534Punt0–0
NYJQ1 1:403-7Punt0–0
GBQ1 0:021074Touchdown7–0
NYJQ2 9:35836Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 6:0431Punt7–7
NYJQ2 4:001137End of half7–7
NYJQ3 15:00418Punt7–7
GBQ3 12:251013Punt7–7
NYJQ3 7:301064Touchdown7–14
GBQ3 2:3037Punt7–14
NYJQ3 0:47643Punt7–14
GBQ4 12:3512Turnover7–14
NYJQ4 12:2739Field goal7–17
GBQ4 11:041150Touchdown14–17
NYJQ4 7:58418Punt14–17
GBQ4 4:3233Field goal17–17
NYJQ4 2:59520Turnover on downs17–17
GBQ4 1:1540Turnover on downs17–17
NYJOT3-3Punt17–17
GBOT443Field goal20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love16/2914520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kaleb Johnson8324.00
MarShawn Lloyd6203.30
Chris Brooks4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matthew Golden46580
Christian Watson411411
Chris Brooks12150
Tucker Kraft23150
Skyy Moore2360
MarShawn Lloyd2261
Jayden Reed1140
Bo Melton0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith27/4124710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall16291.80
Geno Smith5173.40
Isaiah Williams11414.00
Braelon Allen571.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breece Hall55630
Adonai Mitchell612630
Garrett Wilson57571
Isaiah Williams66340
Kenyon Sadiq23170
Braelon Allen1180
Jeremy Ruckert2250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.8%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.01