Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+13.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.181EPA / play+0.126
- 38.2%Success rate48.4%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.338
- -0.438EPA / rush-0.038
- 13.2%Explosive rate10.9%
- -9.65CPOE+12.84
- 25.0%Third-down rate18.2%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.91Points / drive2.08
- 2.9%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.6 points. NYJ are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
80.8%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+10.87
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+13.09