Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.019
- 45.9%Success rate41.8%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.015
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.056
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +5.31CPOE-4.95
- 41.3%Third-down rate40.2%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
- 1.91Points / drive1.69
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.6 points. NYJ are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15/34 | 170 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 12 | 81 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Brett Swain | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| James Jones | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 16/38 | 256 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 13 | 89 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 2 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.77