2010 · Week 8

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

9·0

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NYJ -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapJets
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.019
  • 45.9%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback+0.015
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.056
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +5.31CPOE-4.95
  • 41.3%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.69
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. NYJ are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2GB @ NYJ20–17GB
2022 · W6NYJ @ GB27–10NYJ
2018 · W16GB @ NYJ44–38GB
2014 · W2NYJ @ GB24–31GB
2006 · W13NYJ @ GB38–10NYJ
2002 · W17GB @ NYJ17–42NYJ
2000 · W1NYJ @ GB20–16NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NYJ
GBQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:2035Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:3033Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:3036Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:55414Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:24524Turnover on downs0–0
GBQ1 6:32434Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 4:41846Turnover3–0
GBQ2 14:51617Punt3–0
NYJQ2 12:58413Punt3–0
GBQ2 11:5836Punt3–0
NYJQ2 10:291145Turnover3–0
GBQ2 4:48923Missed field goal3–0
NYJQ2 1:4839Punt3–0
GBQ2 0:59322End of half3–0
NYJQ3 15:0033Punt3–0
GBQ3 13:231054Punt3–0
NYJQ3 7:08771Missed field goal3–0
GBQ3 3:44520Punt3–0
NYJQ3 1:081353Turnover3–0
GBQ4 10:34739Field goal6–0
NYJQ4 6:36746Turnover on downs6–0
GBQ4 4:1231Punt6–0
NYJQ4 3:504-1Turnover on downs6–0
GBQ4 2:3031Field goal9–0
NYJQ4 0:27240End of half9–0

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers15/3417000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jackson15553.70
Aaron Rodgers351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings612810
Jordy Nelson57550
Brandon Jackson22170
Brett Swain11120
Donald Lee1250
Donald Driver0300
James Jones0500
Andrew Quarless0200

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez16/3825602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaDainian Tomlinson16543.40
Mark Sanchez22211.00
Shonn Greene6223.70
Brad Smith3124.00
Jerricho Cotchery1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery413890
Dustin Keller26450
Santonio Holmes36430
LaDainian Tomlinson57370
Braylon Edwards14320
Shonn Greene12100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.77