Closing spread
GB -7
Total
46.5
Model margin
+6.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.142
- 40.5%Success rate47.1%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.317
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.4%Explosive rate11.3%
- -3.58CPOE+2.68
- 39.3%Third-down rate47.1%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.41Points / drive2.59
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.6 points. GB are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/32 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 4 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jace Amaro | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Salas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sudfeld | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/42 | 346 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 9 | 16 | 209 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 6 | 39 | 2 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.0%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+6.04