2014 · Week 2

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

24·31

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

46.5

Model margin

+6.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPackers
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.142
  • 40.5%Success rate47.1%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.317
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.133
  • 8.4%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -3.58CPOE+2.68
  • 39.3%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.41Points / drive2.59
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. GB are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2GB @ NYJ20–17GB
2022 · W6NYJ @ GB27–10NYJ
2018 · W16GB @ NYJ44–38GB
2010 · W8GB @ NYJ9–0GB
2006 · W13NYJ @ GB38–10NYJ
2002 · W17GB @ NYJ17–42NYJ
2000 · W1NYJ @ GB20–16NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–GB
GBQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 14:50516Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 13:014-1Punt7–0
NYJQ1 10:57684Touchdown14–0
GBQ1 8:241067Field goal14–3
NYJQ1 4:061780Touchdown21–3
GBQ2 10:381345Field goal21–6
NYJQ2 5:4338Punt21–6
GBQ2 4:24417Field goal21–9
NYJQ2 3:12425Turnover21–9
GBQ2 1:521082Touchdown21–16
NYJQ2 0:0800End of half21–16
NYJQ3 15:00516Punt21–16
GBQ3 12:5637Punt21–16
NYJQ3 10:4933Punt21–16
GBQ3 9:25867Touchdown21–24
NYJQ3 5:45742Field goal24–24
GBQ3 2:21180Touchdown24–31
NYJQ3 2:084-6Punt24–31
GBQ3 1:047-12Punt24–31
NYJQ4 12:4537Punt24–31
GBQ4 11:44418Punt24–31
NYJQ4 9:231339Turnover on downs24–31
GBQ4 3:31322End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith16/3217611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory13443.41
Geno Smith7263.71
Chris Johnson12211.80
Bilal Powell4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker47631
Bilal Powell22320
Jeremy Kerley38220
Jeff Cumberland12140
David Nelson1160
Jace Amaro1160
Chris Ivory1130
Chris Johnson1300
Greg Salas0200
Zach Sudfeld0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/4234630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy13433.30
Aaron Rodgers6284.70
Randall Cobb263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson9162091
Davante Adams57500
Randall Cobb56392
Eddie Lacy23180
DuJuan Harris12110
Andrew Quarless1280
Jarrett Boykin1360
Richard Rodgers0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.0%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+6.04