Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.010
- 39.6%Success rate40.2%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 37.5%Third-down rate38.8%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 1.29Points / drive1.67
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.101EPA / play allowed-0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.6 points. GB are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 23/44 | 261 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 30 | 110 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedric Ward | 5 | 10 | 104 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 5 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 6 | 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Vincent Brisby | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/34 | 152 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Basil Mitchell | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 3 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 2 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
| Charles Lee | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Basil Mitchell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.44