2002 · Week 17

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

17·42

Jets

New York

QB Chad Pennington

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

GB -1.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapJets
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.054
  • 43.5%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback+0.132
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.055
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
  • 38.0%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.88
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.002

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. NYJ are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2GB @ NYJ20–17GB
2022 · W6NYJ @ GB27–10NYJ
2018 · W16GB @ NYJ44–38GB
2014 · W2NYJ @ GB24–31GB
2010 · W8GB @ NYJ9–0GB
2006 · W13NYJ @ GB38–10NYJ
2000 · W1NYJ @ GB20–16NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NYJ
GBQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:2939Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:02516Punt0–0
NYJQ1 9:3334Punt0–0
GBQ1 7:55619Punt0–0
NYJQ1 4:001084Touchdown0–7
GBQ2 13:27612Punt0–7
NYJQ2 11:053-1Punt0–7
GBQ2 9:531062Field goal3–7
NYJQ2 4:22852Touchdown3–14
GBQ2 1:401076Touchdown10–14
NYJQ2 0:0500End of half10–14
NYJQ3 15:00647Touchdown10–21
GBQ3 11:4632Punt10–21
NYJQ3 10:15776Touchdown10–28
GBQ3 6:34955Turnover10–28
NYJQ3 2:35632Touchdown10–35
GBQ4 14:10312Punt10–35
NYJQ4 12:3046Punt10–35
GBQ4 10:301053Touchdown17–35
NYJQ4 5:35628Touchdown17–42
GBQ4 2:14311End of half17–42

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre16/3317211
Doug Pederson6/84310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green14674.80
Brett Favre2136.50
Eric Metcalf273.50
Tony Fisher133.00
Donald Driver1-1-1.00
Doug Pederson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry Glenn59761
Robert Ferguson49390
Javon Walker35370
Bubba Franks36351
Donald Driver12100
Tyrone Davis1170
Ahman Green3550

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Pennington17/2419640
Vinny Testaverde1/11400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin18834.61
Laveranues Coles12121.00
Santana Moss11414.00
Chad Morton166.00
Chad Pennington231.50
LaMont Jordan620.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles69930
Curtis Martin45420
Wayne Chrebet33372
Santana Moss23201
Anthony Becht1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.46