Closing spread
GB -1.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.054
- 43.5%Success rate44.6%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.132
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.055
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- 38.0%Third-down rate40.1%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.67Points / drive1.88
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.6 points. NYJ are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 16/33 | 172 | 1 | 1 |
| Doug Pederson | 6/8 | 43 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 5 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Robert Ferguson | 4 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 3 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 17/24 | 196 | 4 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 18 | 83 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 6 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 3 | 3 | 37 | 2 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.46