2018 · Week 16

Final / OT

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

44·38

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapJets
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.130
  • 45.9%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.196
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -1.39CPOE-5.42
  • 36.5%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.47
  • 0.9%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. NYJ are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2GB @ NYJ20–17GB
2022 · W6NYJ @ GB27–10NYJ
2014 · W2NYJ @ GB24–31GB
2010 · W8GB @ NYJ9–0GB
2006 · W13NYJ @ GB38–10NYJ
2002 · W17GB @ NYJ17–42NYJ
2000 · W1NYJ @ GB20–16NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00640Missed field goal0–0
GBQ1 11:19513Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:541283Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 2:15510Punt0–7
NYJQ2 14:14876Touchdown0–14
GBQ2 9:02695Touchdown7–20
NYJQ2 5:0600Touchdown7–21
GBQ2 4:54762Touchdown14–21
NYJQ2 1:3330Punt14–21
GBQ2 0:54932Field goal17–21
NYJQ2 0:0200End of half17–21
GBQ3 15:001069Field goal20–21
NYJQ3 8:17775Touchdown20–28
GBQ3 4:2100Touchdown20–28
NYJQ3 4:14328Touchdown20–35
GBQ3 2:50640Punt20–35
NYJQ3 0:183-1Punt20–35
GBQ4 14:11641Field goal23–35
NYJQ4 11:45532Punt23–35
GBQ4 9:341051Touchdown30–35
NYJQ4 6:32914Punt30–35
GBQ4 3:121283Touchdown38–35
NYJQ4 1:12523Field goal38–38
GBQ4 0:1700End of half38–38
GBOT1245Touchdown44–38

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers37/5544220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams15956.31
Aaron Rodgers5326.42

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Equanimeous St. Brown55940
Marquez Valdes-Scantling59750
Davante Adams1118711
Jake Kumerow33681
Jamaal Williams69610
Jimmy Graham34340
Lance Kendricks22260
Robert Tonyan11110
Danny Vitale1220

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold24/3534130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah McGuire14352.51
Trenton Cannon242.00
Sam Darnold341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen9131401
Chris Herndon67821
Jermaine Kearse44550
Elijah McGuire35501
Jordan Leggett1190
Trenton Cannon1250
Deontay Burnett0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.7%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.24