Closing spread
GB -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.130
- 45.9%Success rate37.1%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.196
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.39CPOE-5.42
- 36.5%Third-down rate32.2%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 2.05Points / drive1.47
- 0.9%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.6 points. NYJ are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 37/55 | 442 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 15 | 95 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 5 | 5 | 94 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 5 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 11 | 18 | 71 | 1 |
| Jake Kumerow | 3 | 3 | 68 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 6 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 24/35 | 341 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah McGuire | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Trenton Cannon | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 9 | 13 | 140 | 1 |
| Chris Herndon | 6 | 7 | 82 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 3 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Jordan Leggett | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Deontay Burnett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.06
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.24