Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
40
Model margin
+2.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 7–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. OAK are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:06 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:11 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:41 | 17 | 75 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q2 13:07 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 8:53 | 12 | 57 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| LV | Q2 1:56 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LA | Q2 1:04 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LV | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–0 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LA | Q3 12:00 | 4 | 24 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| LV | Q3 10:14 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LA | Q3 8:42 | 4 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 13–0 |
| LV | Q3 8:08 | 7 | 23 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| LA | Q3 4:55 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LV | Q3 3:28 | 6 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 13–0 |
| LA | Q3 0:53 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LV | Q4 14:23 | 6 | 18 | Turnover | 19–0 |
| LA | Q4 10:11 | 1 | 19 | Touchdown | 20–0 |
| LV | Q4 10:11 | 6 | 34 | Turnover | 20–0 |
| LA | Q4 8:05 | 9 | 47 | Punt | 20–0 |
| LV | Q4 2:42 | 13 | 77 | End of half | 20–0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.64
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.