Closing spread
OAK -7
Total
49
Model margin
+2.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 7–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. STL are 7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 62 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:51 | 9 | 97 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 7:21 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:40 | 12 | 28 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 11:53 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LA | Q2 10:39 | 1 | 13 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 10:32 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LA | Q2 5:13 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 3:52 | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| LA | Q2 3:36 | 8 | 48 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 0:21 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 3–14 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LV | Q3 13:09 | 11 | 57 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| LA | Q3 7:58 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LV | Q3 4:29 | 7 | 35 | Missed field goal | 6–14 |
| LA | Q3 0:50 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| LV | Q4 13:40 | 3 | 27 | Turnover | 6–21 |
| LA | Q4 12:16 | 2 | 33 | Touchdown | 6–28 |
| LV | Q4 11:15 | 9 | 91 | Touchdown | 13–28 |
| LA | Q4 8:05 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–28 |
| LV | Q4 6:54 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 13–28 |
| LA | Q4 6:37 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–28 |
| LV | Q4 4:48 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–28 |
| LA | Q4 3:16 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 13–28 |
| LV | Q4 2:00 | 6 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 13–28 |
| LA | Q4 0:59 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 13–28 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.