2026 · Week 7

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

35·21

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Kirk Cousins

Allegiant Stadium · dome

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.019
  • 49.0%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.117EPA / dropback+0.168
  • -0.042EPA / rush-0.252
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +1.33CPOE-1.41
  • 46.2%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
  • 2.15Points / drive2.49
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 7–1 since 1999

RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. LV are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7LV @ LA15–20RAMS
2022 · W14LV @ LA16–17RAMS
2018 · W1LA @ OAK33–13RAMS
2014 · W13OAK @ STL0–52RAMS
2010 · W2STL @ OAK14–16RAIDERS
2006 · W15STL @ OAK20–0RAMS
2002 · W6OAK @ STL13–28RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–LV
LVQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:313-3Punt0–0
LVQ1 11:4447Missed field goal0–0
LAQ1 10:48954Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 6:25838Field goal7–3
LAQ1 0:511284Touchdown14–3
LVQ2 10:0130Punt14–3
LAQ2 8:29859Touchdown21–3
LVQ2 4:15727Turnover on downs21–3
LAQ2 1:56749Touchdown28–3
LVQ2 1:19755Field goal28–6
LAQ3 15:003-2Punt28–6
LVQ3 13:261147Turnover on downs28–6
LAQ3 8:3919Turnover28–6
LVQ3 8:3045Turnover on downs28–6
LAQ3 7:05850Punt28–6
LVQ3 2:26691Touchdown28–12
LAQ4 14:5110Turnover28–12
LVQ4 14:39532Touchdown28–18
LAQ4 13:121266Touchdown35–18
LVQ4 6:34947Field goal35–21
LAQ4 4:11523End of half35–21

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/2919531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams16996.21
Blake Corum17935.51
Puka Nacua2105.00
Matthew Stafford3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua810681
Colby Parkinson56480
Kyren Williams22220
Davis Allen45202
Konata Mumpfield12150
Tyler Higbee23140
Blake Corum1180

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins26/4429520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Washington Jr.6274.50
Ashton Jeanty8151.90
Kirk Cousins362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre Tucker5121031
Brock Bowers68730
Ashton Jeanty88611
Michael Mayer33320
Jalen Nailor25140
Ian Thomas1180
Cody White1340
Mike Washington Jr.0100
Malik Benson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.75