Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+15.4est.
LV perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ramsedge mapRaiders
- -0.226EPA / play-0.029
- 43.3%Success rate43.1%
- -0.270EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.083
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- -4.74CPOE+0.71
- 22.2%Third-down rate41.7%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 0.69Points / drive2.44
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. LV are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+13.17
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+15.39