Closing spread
LV -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play-0.083
- 43.4%Success rate41.2%
- +0.057EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.065
- 9.9%Explosive rate7.4%
- -2.03CPOE-2.69
- 39.7%Third-down rate40.2%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.10Points / drive1.57
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. LA are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 11/20 | 137 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 27 | 99 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 40 | 13.3 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 3 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/35 | 230 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Skowronek | 7 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 5 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Austin Trammell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.71