2022 · Week 14

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

16·17

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Baker Mayfield

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LV -6.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapRams
  • +0.009EPA / play-0.083
  • 43.4%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.057EPA / dropback-0.094
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.065
  • 9.9%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -2.03CPOE-2.69
  • 39.7%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.57
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 7–1 since 1999

RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. LA are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7LA @ LV35–21RAMS
2024 · W7LV @ LA15–20RAMS
2018 · W1LA @ OAK33–13RAMS
2014 · W13OAK @ STL0–52RAMS
2010 · W2STL @ OAK14–16RAIDERS
2006 · W15STL @ OAK20–0RAMS
2002 · W6OAK @ STL13–28RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–LA
LVQ1 15:001270Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 9:1333Punt7–0
LVQ1 7:03841Field goal10–0
LAQ1 2:22429Field goal10–3
LVQ1 0:06951Field goal13–3
LAQ2 9:40858Turnover13–3
LVQ2 4:451073Turnover13–3
LAQ2 0:4935End of half13–3
LAQ3 15:0062Punt13–3
LVQ3 12:10419Punt13–3
LAQ3 10:18517Punt13–3
LVQ3 8:0838Punt13–3
LAQ3 6:33724Missed field goal13–3
LVQ3 2:421031Field goal16–3
LAQ4 12:201874Touchdown16–10
LVQ4 3:1939Punt16–10
LAQ4 1:45871Touchdown16–17
LVQ4 0:1010Turnover16–17
LAQ4 0:0200End of half16–17

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr11/2013702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs27993.71
Mack Hollins34013.30
Derek Carr4112.80
Zamir White393.00
DJ Turner166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams37710
Mack Hollins24220
Ameer Abdullah22170
Josh Jacobs22150
Keelan Cole11110
Jakob Johnson1110
Foster Moreau0100
DJ Turner0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield22/3523010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers12423.51
Kyren Williams3196.30
Baker Mayfield4102.50
Malcolm Brown155.00
Tutu Atwell2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ben Skowronek78890
Tutu Atwell59500
Van Jefferson24441
Malcolm Brown22120
Tyler Higbee23110
Kyren Williams12100
Brycen Hopkins1180
Austin Trammell1250
Cam Akers1110
Brandon Powell0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.9%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.71