Closing spread
STL -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutCarlos RogersCBKnee· DNP
- OutJonathan DowlingSBack· DNP
- OutLatavius MurrayRBConcussion· DNP
- OutNeiko ThorpeCBHand· DNP
- QuestionableGabe JacksonGKnee· Limited
- ProbableLarry AsanteSShoulder· Limited
- ProbableT.J. CarrieCBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableBrian LeonhardtTEConcussion· Full
Rams
- DoubtfulMarcus RobersonCBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAlex CarringtonDTThigh· Limited
- QuestionableLamarcus JoynerSGroin· Full
- ProbableDavin JosephGNot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableEugene SimsDENot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableAlec OgletreeLBIllness· Limited
- ProbableCory HarkeyTEThigh· Full
- ProbableE.J. GainesCBKnee· Full
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableJared CookTEBack· Full
- ProbableKenny BrittWRBack· Full
- ProbableRobert QuinnDENot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableScott WellsCNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableWill HerringLBFoot· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 7–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. STL are 7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:54 | 4 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 12:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 10:32 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 7:12 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 5:34 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| LV | Q1 2:37 | 11 | 49 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LA | Q2 11:26 | 1 | 89 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| LV | Q2 11:14 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 0–28 |
| LA | Q2 9:32 | 5 | 18 | Touchdown | 0–35 |
| LV | Q2 8:10 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–35 |
| LA | Q2 7:22 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 0–38 |
| LV | Q2 5:27 | 12 | 49 | Punt | 0–38 |
| LA | Q2 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–38 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–38 |
| LV | Q3 13:37 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–38 |
| LA | Q3 11:08 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–38 |
| LV | Q3 9:50 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–38 |
| LA | Q3 7:53 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–38 |
| LV | Q3 7:00 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 0–38 |
| LA | Q3 5:05 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 0–38 |
| LV | Q3 4:08 | 8 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 0–38 |
| LA | Q3 0:37 | 6 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–45 |
| LV | Q4 12:47 | 8 | 29 | Turnover | 0–45 |
| LA | Q4 9:30 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–45 |
| LV | Q4 7:23 | 5 | 15 | Opp touchdown | 0–52 |
| LV | Q4 5:24 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–52 |
| LA | Q4 3:39 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–52 |
| LV | Q4 1:53 | 3 | 6 | End of half | 0–52 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.