Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutChris ChamberlainLBToe· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutJosh HullLBKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutMichael HoomanawanuiTEAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulKevin DockeryCBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableClifton RyanDT(Migraines)· DNP
- QuestionableJustin KingCBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableDarell ScottDTKnee· Full
- ProbableFred RobbinsDTFoot· Full
- ProbableLaurent RobinsonWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableSteven JacksonRBKnee· Full
Raiders
- OutChaz SchilensWRKnee· DNP
- OutTravis GoethelLBBack· DNP
- OutWalter McFaddenCBHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulRobert GalleryGHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableChris JohnsonCBNeck· Limited
- QuestionableHiram EugeneSHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMichael BushRBThumb· Limited
- QuestionableRichard SeymourDEHamstring· DNP
- ProbableDesmond BryantDTElbow· Full
- ProbableNnamdi AsomughaCBGroin· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 7–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. OAK are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:41 | 6 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:28 | 10 | 71 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:50 | 6 | 46 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:20 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 12:04 | 10 | 43 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 7:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 5:34 | 5 | -3 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 3:22 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 1:22 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 0:22 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 7–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| LA | Q3 10:54 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 7–6 |
| LV | Q3 9:40 | 7 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| LA | Q3 6:07 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LV | Q3 4:00 | 4 | 42 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LA | Q3 1:49 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LV | Q3 0:14 | 11 | 47 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| LA | Q4 9:50 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| LV | Q4 9:33 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 7–16 |
| LA | Q4 8:04 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–16 |
| LV | Q4 7:02 | 7 | 27 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| LA | Q4 4:05 | 5 | 39 | Touchdown | 14–16 |
| LV | Q4 3:18 | 6 | 27 | End of half | 14–16 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.