Closing spread
LA -7
Total
43
Model margin
+0.8est.
LA perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play+0.038
- 41.0%Success rate47.5%
- -0.058EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.283EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.46CPOE-0.97
- 34.2%Third-down rate37.0%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
- 1.51Points / drive2.09
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. LA are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 15/34 | 154 | 0 | 3 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 6/10 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 23 | 92 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 10 | 14 | 93 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 3 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 14/23 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 21 | 76 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Xavier Smith | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Johnson | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 6 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.91
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.83