Closing spread
LA -6
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
LA lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. OAK are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 18/33 | 233 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 20 | 108 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 9 | 52 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.11
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.