Closing spread
DEN -10.5
Total
39
Model margin
+4.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.045
- 39.6%Success rate40.7%
- -0.094EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.028
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- -0.50CPOE-2.37
- 33.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.43Points / drive1.52
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. DEN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/32 | 194 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 31 | 153 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/32 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.64