Closing spread
DEN -10.5
Total
39
Model margin
+4.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.045
- 39.6%Success rate40.7%
- -0.094EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.028
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- -0.50CPOE-2.37
- 33.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.43Points / drive1.52
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 45 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:30 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:16 | 7 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 4:57 | 8 | 9 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 0:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q2 14:36 | 6 | 56 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| SF | Q2 11:19 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q2 9:45 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| SF | Q2 8:23 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q2 6:34 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–6 |
| SF | Q2 4:00 | 4 | 29 | Opp touchdown | 0–13 |
| SF | Q2 2:09 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| DEN | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–13 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q3 7:52 | 4 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 17–13 |
| DEN | Q3 6:25 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 17–16 |
| SF | Q3 1:45 | 8 | 58 | Field goal | 20–16 |
| DEN | Q4 11:57 | 2 | 15 | Turnover | 20–16 |
| SF | Q4 11:36 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 20–16 |
| SF | Q4 9:40 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 20–16 |
| DEN | Q4 9:34 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–16 |
| SF | Q4 8:30 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 23–16 |
| DEN | Q4 6:14 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 23–23 |
| SF | Q4 1:30 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 23–23 |
| DEN | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–23 |
| DEN | OT | 5 | 16 | Punt | 23–23 |
| SF | OT | 8 | 44 | Punt | 23–23 |
| DEN | OT | 6 | 13 | Punt | 23–23 |
| SF | OT | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 26–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/32 | 194 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 31 | 153 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/32 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.64