Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play+0.098
- 49.4%Success rate45.2%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.159
- +0.062EPA / rush+0.004
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- 37.9%Third-down rate52.5%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.76Points / drive1.83
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.007EPA / play allowed+0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 14/19 | 119 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 10 | 95 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 27/36 | 205 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Garrison Hearst | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Johnson | 7 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 7 | 38 | 1 |
| Garrison Hearst | 6 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.29