Closing spread
SF -1
Total
44
Model margin
-2.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.077
- 46.1%Success rate39.4%
- +0.171EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.124
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.99CPOE-1.65
- 45.1%Third-down rate29.1%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 2.20Points / drive1.34
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. DEN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 18/29 | 211 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 12 | 75 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/33 | 184 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 12 | 26 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 8 | 10 | 97 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.86