2022 · Week 3

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

10·11

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

SF -1

Total

44

Model margin

-2.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.084EPA / play-0.077
  • 46.1%Success rate39.4%
  • +0.171EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.124
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -1.99CPOE-1.65
  • 45.1%Third-down rate29.1%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 2.20Points / drive1.34
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DEN @ SF14–24SF
2018 · W14DEN @ SF14–20SF
2014 · W7SF @ DEN17–42DEN
2010 · W8DEN @ SF16–24SF
2006 · W17SF @ DEN26–23SF
2002 · W2DEN @ SF24–14DEN
2000 · W17SF @ DEN9–38DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–DEN
SFQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:5033Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:07675Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 7:5633Punt7–0
SFQ1 7:05412Punt7–0
DENQ1 4:2135Punt7–0
SFQ1 2:53524Punt7–0
DENQ1 0:07757Field goal7–3
SFQ2 11:56548Punt7–3
DENQ2 9:171158Punt7–3
SFQ2 2:2746Punt7–3
DENQ2 1:32414Punt7–3
SFQ2 1:0035End of half7–3
DENQ3 15:003-4Punt7–3
SFQ3 13:4747Turnover7–3
DENQ3 12:4131Punt7–3
SFQ3 10:312-2Safety7–5
DENQ3 9:531236Missed field goal7–5
SFQ3 3:46410Punt7–5
DENQ3 1:383-3Punt7–5
SFQ3 0:2938Field goal10–5
DENQ4 14:1039Punt10–5
SFQ4 12:28431Punt10–5
DENQ4 10:141280Touchdown10–11
SFQ4 4:10523Turnover10–11
DENQ4 2:0635Punt10–11
SFQ4 1:4224Turnover10–11
DENQ4 1:0500End of half10–11

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo18/2921111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson12756.30
Jordan Mason177.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.561.20
Jimmy Garoppolo100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.58730
Brandon Aiyuk38391
Jeff Wilson33310
George Kittle45280
Ray-Ray McCloud11110
Jauan Jennings1350

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/3318400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams15583.90
Melvin Gordon12262.21
Russell Wilson6172.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton810970
Melvin Gordon56290
Kendall Hinton11270
Jerry Jeudy26170
Albert Okwuegbunam12120
Javonte Williams3520
Eric Saubert0100
Mike Boone0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.86