Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+22.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Broncosedge map49ers
- -0.378EPA / play+0.190
- 36.0%Success rate56.9%
- -0.442EPA / dropback+0.227
- -0.228EPA / rush+0.142
- 2.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- -7.78CPOE+0.77
- 16.7%Third-down rate58.3%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 0.83Points / drive2.98
- 4.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+20.21
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+22.43