2026 · Week 4

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

14·24

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge map49ers
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.153
  • 37.9%Success rate52.5%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.265
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.001
  • 6.4%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -2.61CPOE+4.63
  • 31.4%Third-down rate51.0%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate88.6%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.81
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. SF are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W3SF @ DEN10–11DEN
2018 · W14DEN @ SF14–20SF
2014 · W7SF @ DEN17–42DEN
2010 · W8DEN @ SF16–24SF
2006 · W17SF @ DEN26–23SF
2002 · W2DEN @ SF24–14DEN
2000 · W17SF @ DEN9–38DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–SF
DENQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
SFQ1 14:09830Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:311470Field goal3–0
SFQ1 1:43531Turnover on downs3–0
DENQ2 14:2138Punt3–0
SFQ2 12:3639Punt3–0
DENQ2 10:28932Punt3–0
SFQ2 5:011174Field goal3–3
DENQ2 1:36613Punt3–3
SFQ2 0:41646Missed field goal3–3
SFQ3 15:0031Punt3–3
DENQ3 13:56622Punt3–3
SFQ3 10:4433Punt3–3
SFQ3 9:40928Touchdown3–10
DENQ3 4:151063Field goal6–10
SFQ4 14:081069Touchdown6–17
DENQ4 8:52868Touchdown14–17
SFQ4 4:05569Touchdown14–24
DENQ4 2:15718Missed field goal14–24
SFQ4 1:1400End of half14–24

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix25/4221410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins11403.60
RJ Harvey7253.60
Bo Nix2105.00
Tyler Badie273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
RJ Harvey1010680
Pat Bryant33470
Jaylen Waddle56351
Tyler Badie22320
J.K. Dobbins22120
Marvin Mims Jr.13100
Evan Engram1560
Courtland Sutton1640
Adam Trautman0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy19/3021820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey15523.51
Deebo Samuel Sr.34414.70
Brock Purdy10292.90
Kaelon Black6132.20
Jacob Cowing122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans58760
George Kittle46701
Deebo Samuel Sr.56261
Christian McCaffrey35180
Brandin Cooks0100
Jacob Cowing0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.53