Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play-0.019
- 43.4%Success rate44.8%
- -0.009EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.135
- 9.9%Explosive rate11.4%
- -0.98CPOE-2.68
- 33.1%Third-down rate37.2%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.60Points / drive1.66
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 24/42 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Case Keenum | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick | 7 | 10 | 85 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 7 | 9 | 47 | 1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brian Parker | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 20/33 | 332 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 23 | 90 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 5 | -10 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 7 | 9 | 210 | 1 |
| Dante Pettis | 3 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.59