2018 · Week 14

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Case Keenum

14·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge map49ers
  • -0.020EPA / play-0.019
  • 43.4%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.009EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.135
  • 9.9%Explosive rate11.4%
  • -0.98CPOE-2.68
  • 33.1%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.60Points / drive1.66
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. SF are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DEN @ SF14–24SF
2022 · W3SF @ DEN10–11DEN
2014 · W7SF @ DEN17–42DEN
2010 · W8DEN @ SF16–24SF
2006 · W17SF @ DEN26–23SF
2002 · W2DEN @ SF24–14DEN
2000 · W17SF @ DEN9–38DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–SF
SFQ1 15:00861Field goal0–3
DENQ1 10:2331Punt0–3
SFQ1 9:171136Punt0–3
DENQ1 4:50519Punt0–3
SFQ1 2:10664Field goal0–6
DENQ2 13:01619Punt0–12
SFQ2 10:00185Touchdown0–13
DENQ2 9:47920Punt0–13
SFQ2 5:2211Punt0–13
SFQ2 4:43814Punt0–13
DENQ2 1:4847Punt0–13
SFQ2 1:071050Touchdown0–20
DENQ2 0:0800End of half0–20
DENQ3 15:0044Punt0–20
SFQ3 12:563-10Punt0–20
DENQ3 10:591156Touchdown7–20
SFQ3 6:05833Punt7–20
DENQ3 2:10938Turnover on downs7–20
SFQ4 12:4131Turnover7–20
DENQ4 11:21638Turnover on downs7–20
SFQ4 8:3738Punt7–20
DENQ4 6:551552Touchdown14–20
SFQ4 3:53652Turnover on downs14–20
DENQ4 0:05121End of half14–20

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum24/4218610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Royce Freeman6366.00
Phillip Lindsay14302.11
Case Keenum4246.00
Tim Patrick11111.00
Courtland Sutton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tim Patrick710850
DaeSean Hamilton79471
Phillip Lindsay47210
Courtland Sutton26140
Devontae Booker22110
Brian Parker1250
Matt LaCosse1130
Royce Freeman0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens20/3333221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson23903.90
Alfred Morris242.00
Nick Mullens5-10-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle792101
Dante Pettis37491
Kendrick Bourne24220
Marquise Goodwin22200
Trent Taylor1260
Jeff Wilson1260
Alfred Morris1130
Garrett Celek0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.59