Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play+0.086
- 42.2%Success rate45.4%
- +0.195EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.025
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.9%
- 41.2%Third-down rate44.1%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.90Points / drive1.79
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.092EPA / play allowed-0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:10 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:05 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 6:36 | 7 | 38 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 3:04 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 1:28 | 15 | 28 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SF | Q2 10:57 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q2 9:42 | 5 | 49 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| SF | Q2 7:33 | 10 | 23 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 4:54 | 13 | 46 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| SF | Q2 0:42 | 5 | 32 | End of half | 0–17 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| SF | Q3 10:33 | 3 | -10 | Turnover | 0–24 |
| DEN | Q3 9:34 | 2 | 15 | Touchdown | 0–31 |
| SF | Q3 8:51 | 8 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 0–31 |
| DEN | Q3 6:34 | 15 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–38 |
| SF | Q3 0:15 | 14 | 39 | Field goal | 3–38 |
| DEN | Q4 9:04 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–38 |
| SF | Q4 6:45 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 3–38 |
| DEN | Q4 4:55 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 3–38 |
| SF | Q4 2:44 | 5 | 31 | Touchdown | 9–38 |
| DEN | Q4 0:39 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 9–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 18/40 | 188 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Smith | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 8 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Rice | 6 | 13 | 61 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 3 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 3 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 18/29 | 205 | 1 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2/2 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 26 | 85 | 3.3 | 2 |
| KaRon Coleman | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Jarious Jackson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 8 | 14 | 80 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 5 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
47.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.61