Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
48
Model margin
+5.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play+0.083
- 42.6%Success rate46.3%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.188
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.075
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.7%
- -2.41CPOE+3.06
- 40.5%Third-down rate44.4%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.44Points / drive2.29
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. DEN are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 24/39 | 263 | 1 | 1 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3/7 | 38 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 7 | 79 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 3 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/26 | 318 | 4 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 14 | 74 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Juwan Thompson | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 9 | 171 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 3 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Burse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.09