2014 · Week 7

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

17·42

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -7

Total

48

Model margin

+5.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.029EPA / play+0.083
  • 42.6%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.188
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.075
  • 9.9%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -2.41CPOE+3.06
  • 40.5%Third-down rate44.4%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 1.44Points / drive2.29
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DEN @ SF14–24SF
2022 · W3SF @ DEN10–11DEN
2018 · W14DEN @ SF14–20SF
2010 · W8DEN @ SF16–24SF
2006 · W17SF @ DEN26–23SF
2002 · W2DEN @ SF24–14DEN
2000 · W17SF @ DEN9–38DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–DEN
SFQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:29962Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 8:29848Missed field goal0–7
DENQ1 4:19359Touchdown0–14
SFQ1 2:573-1Punt0–14
DENQ1 1:56624Punt0–14
SFQ2 14:001359Field goal3–14
DENQ2 7:301249Touchdown3–21
SFQ2 3:09785Touchdown10–21
DENQ2 0:1100End of half10–21
DENQ3 15:00319Punt10–21
SFQ3 13:1837Turnover10–27
DENQ3 11:55140Touchdown10–28
SFQ3 11:483-10Punt10–28
DENQ3 10:05386Touchdown10–35
SFQ3 9:2430Punt10–35
DENQ3 8:441367Touchdown10–42
SFQ3 1:3676Punt10–42
DENQ4 13:3239Punt10–42
SFQ4 11:221574Turnover on downs10–42
DENQ4 4:1047Punt10–42
SFQ4 2:49945Touchdown17–42
DENQ4 1:0000End of half17–42

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick24/3926311
Blaine Gabbert3/73810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore9202.20
Colin Kaepernick3186.00
Carlos Hyde3155.00
Blaine Gabbert155.00
Derek Carrier122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson57791
Brandon Lloyd36630
Anquan Boldin710500
Bruce Ellington34441
Michael Crabtree47270
Vernon Davis25210
Derek Carrier1390
Carlos Hyde2280
Kassim Osgood0100
Frank Gore0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning22/2631840
Brock Osweiler0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman14745.32
Juwan Thompson6305.00
C.J. Anderson294.50
Virgil Green133.00
Brock Osweiler300.00
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas891712
Wes Welker33501
Emmanuel Sanders33411
Ronnie Hillman44290
Julius Thomas46270
Andre Caldwell0100
Isaiah Burse0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.6%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.09