Closing spread
SF -2
Total
41
Model margin
+5.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.055
- 39.3%Success rate38.8%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.024
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.102
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- -2.61CPOE-4.51
- 31.6%Third-down rate33.2%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.70Points / drive1.30
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 41.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 28/40 | 369 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 7 | 12 | 169 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Dan Gronkowski | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Smith | 12/19 | 196 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 29 | 118 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Anthony Dixon | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.30