2010 · Week 8

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

16·24

49ers

San Francisco

QB Troy Smith

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -2

Total

41

Model margin

+5.3est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge map49ers
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.055
  • 39.3%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.024
  • -0.205EPA / rush-0.102
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -2.61CPOE-4.51
  • 31.6%Third-down rate33.2%
  • 61.7%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.30
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. SF are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DEN @ SF14–24SF
2022 · W3SF @ DEN10–11DEN
2018 · W14DEN @ SF14–20SF
2014 · W7SF @ DEN17–42DEN
2006 · W17SF @ DEN26–23SF
2002 · W2DEN @ SF24–14DEN
2000 · W17SF @ DEN9–38DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–SF
DENQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:5635Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:26747Punt0–0
SFQ1 7:541265Field goal0–3
DENQ1 0:23629Punt0–3
SFQ2 11:42517Punt0–3
DENQ2 9:27624Punt0–3
SFQ2 6:35533Punt0–3
DENQ2 3:541122Punt0–3
SFQ2 0:011-1End of half0–3
SFQ3 15:00729Punt0–3
DENQ3 10:23584Touchdown7–3
SFQ3 8:08643Missed field goal7–3
DENQ3 4:2032Punt7–3
SFQ3 3:2138Punt7–3
DENQ3 1:24764Field goal10–3
SFQ4 14:13666Touchdown10–10
DENQ4 11:51312Punt10–10
SFQ4 9:34448Touchdown10–17
DENQ4 7:2314Turnover10–17
SFQ4 7:07618Touchdown10–24
DENQ4 3:47783Touchdown16–24
SFQ4 2:1939Punt16–24
DENQ4 1:36521Turnover16–24
SFQ4 0:381-1End of half16–24

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton28/4036911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno11403.60
Kyle Orton3186.00
Tim Tebow210.51
Demaryius Thomas100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Lloyd7121691
Jabar Gaffney47540
Eddie Royal46340
Demaryius Thomas11310
Dan Gronkowski33290
Correll Buckhalter44230
Knowshon Moreno44190
Daniel Graham12100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Smith12/1919610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore291184.11
Anthony Dixon5112.20
Ted Ginn199.00
Brian Westbrook242.00
Troy Smith420.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker57850
Michael Crabtree35531
Josh Morgan12300
Vernon Davis11120
Brian Westbrook1190
Frank Gore1170
Ted Ginn0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.26
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.30