Closing spread
IND -10
Total
44
Model margin
+6.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.095EPA / play+0.114
- 39.3%Success rate48.1%
- -0.083EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.087
- 7.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- -3.00CPOE+4.76
- 35.1%Third-down rate50.8%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 1.70Points / drive2.14
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 13/21 | 150 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 23 | 123 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Jones | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 30/49 | 257 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.80