Closing spread
IND -7
Total
45
Model margin
+3.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
3.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.123EPA / play-0.144
- 45.8%Success rate38.4%
- +0.249EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.156
- 9.0%Explosive rate6.1%
- 46.8%Third-down rate29.8%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate35.6%
- 2.04Points / drive0.80
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.005EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CHI are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/39 | 302 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dilger | 5 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 3 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| E.G. Green | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 24/35 | 214 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 16 | 85 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Marlon Barnes | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 8 | 9 | 90 | 1 |
| James Allen | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Kaseem Sinceno | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Marlon Barnes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.29