2000 · Week 10

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

24·27

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

IND -7

Total

45

Model margin

+3.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

3.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBears
  • +0.123EPA / play-0.144
  • 45.8%Success rate38.4%
  • +0.249EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.156
  • 9.0%Explosive rate6.1%
  • 46.8%Third-down rate29.8%
  • 62.8%Red-zone TD rate35.6%
  • 2.04Points / drive0.80
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
  • +0.005EPA / play allowed-0.018

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–3 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CHI are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3CHI @ IND16–21IND
2020 · W4IND @ CHI19–11IND
2016 · W5CHI @ IND23–29IND
2012 · W1IND @ CHI21–41CHI
2008 · W1CHI @ IND29–13CHI
2006 · playoffsIND @ CHI29–17IND
2004 · W11IND @ CHI41–10IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001796Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 5:21313Punt0–7
CHIQ1 3:21737Field goal0–10
INDQ1 0:021043Punt0–10
CHIQ2 10:221292Touchdown0–17
INDQ2 4:12413Punt0–17
CHIQ2 1:57848Field goal0–20
INDQ3 15:0036Opp touchdown0–27
CHIQ3 13:4200Opp touchdown0–27
INDQ3 13:4236Punt0–27
CHIQ3 12:3545Punt0–27
INDQ3 11:111387Touchdown8–27
CHIQ3 6:001247Turnover on downs8–27
INDQ4 14:571371Field goal11–27
CHIQ4 10:3339Punt11–27
INDQ4 8:31755Touchdown17–27
CHIQ4 6:39938Punt17–27
INDQ4 2:55879Touchdown24–27
CHIQ4 1:3600Turnover24–27
INDQ4 1:363-2Turnover24–27
CHIQ4 1:052-2End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning26/3930221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James17684.01
Peyton Manning3227.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ken Dilger57660
Jerome Pathon38581
Edgerrin James45491
E.G. Green55450
Marvin Harrison69420
Marcus Pollard33420
Terrence Wilkins0200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller24/3521410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen16855.30
Curtis Enis9252.81
Marlon Barnes5234.60
Marcus Robinson199.00
Jim Miller410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Robinson89901
James Allen58370
Eddie Kennison58370
Kaseem Sinceno23210
Macey Brooks24160
Marty Booker11110
Dez White1120
Marlon Barnes0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.35
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.29