2012 · Week 1

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

21·41

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

CHI -10

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBears
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.041
  • 45.1%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.104
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -4.46CPOE-0.76
  • 42.3%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.47
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–3 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CHI are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3CHI @ IND16–21IND
2020 · W4IND @ CHI19–11IND
2016 · W5CHI @ IND23–29IND
2008 · W1CHI @ IND29–13CHI
2006 · playoffsIND @ CHI29–17IND
2004 · W11IND @ CHI41–10IND
2000 · W10IND @ CHI24–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CHI
CHIQ1 15:003-9Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:0836Punt6–0
CHIQ1 11:2810Opp touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 11:231361Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 7:19617Punt7–7
CHIQ1 4:1933Punt7–7
INDQ1 3:2144Punt7–7
CHIQ1 1:2512105Touchdown7–14
INDQ2 10:33217Turnover7–14
CHIQ2 9:40756Field goal7–17
INDQ2 5:32671Touchdown14–17
CHIQ2 3:17972Touchdown14–24
INDQ2 0:44559Missed field goal14–24
CHIQ2 0:0200End of half14–24
INDQ3 15:0031Punt14–24
CHIQ3 14:02455Touchdown14–31
INDQ3 11:5200Field goal14–31
CHIQ3 11:4634Field goal14–34
INDQ3 10:021265Turnover14–34
CHIQ3 4:463-10Punt14–34
INDQ3 2:37313Turnover14–34
CHIQ3 1:4939Punt14–34
INDQ3 0:121280Touchdown21–34
CHIQ4 10:20780Touchdown21–41
INDQ4 6:0852Punt21–41
CHIQ4 4:4846Punt21–41
INDQ4 2:28521Turnover21–41
CHIQ4 1:4200End of half21–41

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck23/4530913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown9485.31
Andrew Luck294.50
Vick Ballard461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne9181350
Coby Fleener610820
Donnie Avery38371
Kris Adams24260
Mewelde Moore11110
LaVon Brazill11100
Dominique Jones1180
Donald Brown0200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler21/3533321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte16805.01
Michael Bush12423.52
Jay Cutler4-4-1.00
Devin Hester1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall9151191
Alshon Jeffery35801
Earl Bennett34500
Matt Forte36400
Devin Hester22270
Kyle Adams11170
Kellen Davis0100
Evan Rodriguez0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.28