Closing spread
CHI -10
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.041
- 45.1%Success rate39.6%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- -4.46CPOE-0.76
- 42.3%Third-down rate36.4%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.62Points / drive1.47
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CHI are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 23/45 | 309 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 9 | 18 | 135 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 6 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 3 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Kris Adams | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Dominique Jones | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/35 | 333 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Michael Bush | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 9 | 15 | 119 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 5 | 80 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Kyle Adams | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Rodriguez | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.28