Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.045
- 40.1%Success rate40.6%
- -0.036EPA / dropback-0.025
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.071
- 5.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.22CPOE-5.38
- 33.1%Third-down rate37.8%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.65Points / drive1.87
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 33/52 | 363 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roschon Johnson | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 20 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze | 6 | 11 | 112 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 10 | 11 | 97 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 8 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 10/20 | 167 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 23 | 110 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Anthony Richardson | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.72