2024 · Week 3

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

16·21

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Anthony Richardson

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1.5

Total

43

Model margin

+3.7est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapColts
  • -0.072EPA / play-0.045
  • 40.1%Success rate40.6%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback-0.025
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.071
  • 5.9%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.22CPOE-5.38
  • 33.1%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.87
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–3 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W4IND @ CHI19–11IND
2016 · W5CHI @ IND23–29IND
2012 · W1IND @ CHI21–41CHI
2008 · W1CHI @ IND29–13CHI
2006 · playoffsIND @ CHI29–17IND
2004 · W11IND @ CHI41–10IND
2000 · W10IND @ CHI24–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–IND
CHIQ1 15:001032Missed field goal0–0
INDQ1 9:3345Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:2766Punt0–0
INDQ1 6:34616Punt0–0
CHIQ1 3:05512Punt0–0
INDQ2 15:00758Turnover0–0
CHIQ2 11:03453Turnover0–0
INDQ2 9:35370Touchdown0–7
CHIQ2 8:191753Turnover on downs0–7
INDQ2 1:40518Punt0–7
CHIQ2 0:51891End of half0–7
INDQ3 15:0010Turnover0–7
CHIQ3 14:52418Field goal3–7
INDQ3 12:51316Punt3–7
CHIQ3 11:224-8Turnover3–7
INDQ3 9:46513Turnover on downs3–7
CHIQ3 7:2536Punt3–7
INDQ3 5:51975Touchdown3–14
CHIQ3 0:211368Touchdown9–14
INDQ4 8:2146Punt9–14
CHIQ4 6:521-6Turnover9–14
INDQ4 6:46416Touchdown9–21
CHIQ4 5:221370Touchdown16–21
INDQ4 2:01217End of half16–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams33/5236322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Roschon Johnson8303.80
D'Andre Swift13201.50
Khalil Herbert492.30
Caleb Williams188.00
Rome Odunze122.00
DJ Moore1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rome Odunze6111121
Cole Kmet1011971
DJ Moore810780
Roschon Johnson45320
DeAndre Carter36220
D'Andre Swift24220
Gerald Everett0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Richardson10/2016702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor231104.82
Anthony Richardson8243.00
Trey Sermon2168.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce12440
Kylen Granson11400
Michael Pittman45360
Jonathan Taylor12250
Josh Downs35220
Mo Alie-Cox0100
Ashton Dulin0100
Adonai Mitchell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.72