2020 · Week 4

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

19·11

Bears

Chicago

QB Nick Foles

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-4.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBears
  • +0.083EPA / play-0.016
  • 46.8%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.073
  • 11.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -0.03CPOE+1.28
  • 39.7%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.35Points / drive1.97
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–3 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CHI are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3CHI @ IND16–21IND
2016 · W5CHI @ IND23–29IND
2012 · W1IND @ CHI21–41CHI
2008 · W1CHI @ IND29–13CHI
2006 · playoffsIND @ CHI29–17IND
2004 · W11IND @ CHI41–10IND
2000 · W10IND @ CHI24–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00512Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:43965Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 8:08515Punt7–0
INDQ1 5:4335Punt7–0
CHIQ1 4:54714Punt7–0
INDQ1 1:37536Punt7–0
CHIQ2 14:19884Field goal7–3
INDQ2 9:241352Field goal10–3
CHIQ2 3:4730Punt10–3
INDQ2 2:05820Field goal13–3
CHIQ2 0:0600End of half13–3
INDQ3 15:0036Punt13–3
CHIQ3 12:503-3Punt13–3
INDQ3 11:0530Punt13–3
CHIQ3 10:08833Punt13–3
INDQ3 6:06954Field goal16–3
CHIQ3 0:5538Punt16–3
INDQ4 14:0633Punt16–3
CHIQ4 13:011017Turnover16–3
INDQ4 10:591251Field goal19–3
CHIQ4 3:47890Touchdown19–11
INDQ4 1:3511Turnover on downs19–11

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers16/2919010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor17684.00
Nyheim Hines9242.70
Jordan Wilkins9151.70
Philip Rivers3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Pascal38580
T.Y. Hilton35290
Marcus Johnson11270
Trey Burton25160
Jordan Wilkins11160
Mo Alie-Cox12131
Jack Doyle11120
Jonathan Taylor11110
Nyheim Hines3380
Daurice Fountain0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles26/4224911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery10272.70
Cordarrelle Patterson351.70
Nick Foles2-1-0.50
Darnell Mooney1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson7101011
Darnell Mooney59520
Jimmy Graham45330
David Montgomery36300
Anthony Miller35160
Ted Ginn22110
Demetrius Harris1260
Cordarrelle Patterson1200
Cole Kmet0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.3%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.54
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.06