Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-4.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play-0.016
- 46.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.073
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- -0.03CPOE+1.28
- 39.7%Third-down rate34.8%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.35Points / drive1.97
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CHI are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 16/29 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Pascal | 3 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Daurice Fountain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 26/42 | 249 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 7 | 10 | 101 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.3%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.54
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.06