Closing spread
IND -8
Total
44.5
Model margin
-4.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.239EPA / play-0.240
- 53.8%Success rate35.2%
- +0.412EPA / dropback-0.283
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.177
- 11.3%Explosive rate6.8%
- 44.4%Third-down rate25.7%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 2.73Points / drive0.78
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.033EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CHI are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 13:35 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CHI | Q1 9:05 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CHI | Q1 5:56 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| IND | Q1 2:12 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| CHI | Q2 14:04 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| IND | Q2 13:28 | 6 | 8 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| CHI | Q2 10:56 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 17–3 |
| IND | Q2 8:53 | 4 | 36 | Punt | 17–3 |
| CHI | Q2 7:05 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| IND | Q2 6:24 | 2 | 13 | Touchdown | 24–3 |
| CHI | Q2 5:41 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 24–3 |
| IND | Q2 4:17 | 7 | 31 | Field goal | 27–3 |
| CHI | Q2 0:59 | 6 | 69 | End of half | 27–3 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 64 | Turnover | 27–3 |
| CHI | Q3 12:14 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 27–3 |
| IND | Q3 10:52 | 4 | 71 | Touchdown | 34–3 |
| CHI | Q3 8:26 | 7 | 13 | Turnover | 34–3 |
| IND | Q3 4:52 | 7 | 54 | Touchdown | 41–3 |
| CHI | Q3 0:42 | 8 | 15 | Turnover | 41–3 |
| IND | Q4 12:42 | 11 | 68 | Turnover on downs | 41–3 |
| CHI | Q4 4:52 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 41–10 |
| IND | Q4 1:37 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 41–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 17/28 | 211 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 23 | 204 | 8.9 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Krenzel | 14/24 | 175 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Craig Krenzel | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
37.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.01
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.45