Closing spread
IND -8
Total
44.5
Model margin
-4.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.239EPA / play-0.240
- 53.8%Success rate35.2%
- +0.412EPA / dropback-0.283
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.177
- 11.3%Explosive rate6.8%
- 44.4%Third-down rate25.7%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 2.73Points / drive0.78
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.033EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CHI are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 17/28 | 211 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 23 | 204 | 8.9 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Krenzel | 14/24 | 175 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Craig Krenzel | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
37.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.01
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.45