Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.153EPA / play-0.046
- 51.4%Success rate40.3%
- +0.294EPA / dropback-0.039
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- +4.70CPOE-3.50
- 56.7%Third-down rate37.7%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 2.54Points / drive1.80
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CHI are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 14:46 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 12:48 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 11:20 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| CHI | Q1 6:50 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| IND | Q1 6:43 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| CHI | Q1 6:34 | 4 | 57 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| IND | Q1 4:34 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–14 |
| CHI | Q1 3:05 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 6–14 |
| IND | Q1 2:34 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–14 |
| CHI | Q1 1:33 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–14 |
| IND | Q1 0:09 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 9–14 |
| CHI | Q2 11:17 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 9–14 |
| IND | Q2 9:17 | 7 | 58 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| CHI | Q2 6:09 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 16–14 |
| IND | Q2 3:57 | 7 | 28 | Turnover | 16–14 |
| CHI | Q2 1:26 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 16–14 |
| IND | Q2 1:18 | 4 | 18 | Missed field goal | 16–14 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 61 | Field goal | 19–14 |
| CHI | Q3 7:26 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 19–14 |
| IND | Q3 5:23 | 5 | 52 | Field goal | 22–14 |
| CHI | Q3 3:16 | 5 | 14 | Field goal | 22–17 |
| IND | Q3 1:14 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 22–17 |
| CHI | Q4 13:38 | 4 | 28 | Opp touchdown | 29–17 |
| CHI | Q4 11:44 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 29–17 |
| IND | Q4 9:55 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 29–17 |
| CHI | Q4 7:27 | 8 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 29–17 |
| IND | Q4 5:05 | 8 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 29–17 |
| CHI | Q4 1:42 | 6 | 58 | End of half | 29–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/38 | 247 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 21 | 113 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 20/28 | 165 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 15 | 112 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49