Closing spread
IND -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play+0.045
- 44.1%Success rate45.9%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.117
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- -0.10CPOE+1.05
- 37.8%Third-down rate42.8%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 1.41Points / drive2.10
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 33/43 | 397 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 16 | 118 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Meredith | 9 | 12 | 130 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 7 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 3 | 3 | 45 | 1 |
| Eddie Royal | 7 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 28/39 | 322 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 75 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Quan Bray | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 10 | 11 | 171 | 1 |
| Dwayne Allen | 6 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Quan Bray | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.01
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.45