2016 · Week 5

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Brian Hoyer

23·29

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -4

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapColts
  • -0.042EPA / play+0.045
  • 44.1%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.117
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -0.10CPOE+1.05
  • 37.8%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 52.5%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
  • 1.41Points / drive2.10
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–3 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3CHI @ IND16–21IND
2020 · W4IND @ CHI19–11IND
2012 · W1IND @ CHI21–41CHI
2008 · W1CHI @ IND29–13CHI
2006 · playoffsIND @ CHI29–17IND
2004 · W11IND @ CHI41–10IND
2000 · W10IND @ CHI24–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–IND
CHIQ1 15:001281Field goal3–0
INDQ1 8:24840Field goal3–3
CHIQ1 5:1039Punt3–3
INDQ1 3:421290Touchdown3–10
CHIQ2 12:58854Field goal6–10
INDQ2 8:22531Field goal6–13
CHIQ2 6:08685Touchdown13–13
INDQ2 3:351182Field goal13–16
CHIQ2 0:1100End of half13–16
INDQ3 15:0039Punt13–16
CHIQ3 13:05522Punt13–16
INDQ3 11:001140Field goal13–19
CHIQ3 5:52529Missed field goal13–19
INDQ3 4:0138Punt13–19
CHIQ3 2:46878Field goal16–19
INDQ4 13:313-3Punt16–19
CHIQ4 11:49996Touchdown23–19
INDQ4 7:04677Touchdown23–26
CHIQ4 3:43112Turnover23–26
INDQ4 3:29311Field goal23–29
CHIQ4 2:28857Turnover on downs23–29
INDQ4 0:57113End of half23–29

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer33/4339720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard161187.40
Cameron Meredith166.00
Ka'Deem Carey122.00
Brian Hoyer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Meredith9121301
Alshon Jeffery56770
Zach Miller78730
Jordan Howard33451
Eddie Royal79430
Ka'Deem Carey11150
Josh Bellamy11140
Logan Paulsen0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck28/3932220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore14755.40
Andrew Luck5132.60
Quan Bray177.00
Josh Ferguson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton10111711
Dwayne Allen66501
Quan Bray23290
Phillip Dorsett23260
Chester Rogers36240
Josh Ferguson23100
Jack Doyle2380
Frank Gore1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.01
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.45