Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play+0.004
- 42.9%Success rate43.8%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.055
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.13CPOE-1.08
- 41.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate50.9%
- 1.61Points / drive1.73
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–3 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PHI are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 13/25 | 131 | 0 | 1 |
| Byron Leftwich | 4/7 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 13 | 20 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Carey Davis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 24/35 | 196 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 2/3 | 18 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
39.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.01