2008 · Week 3

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

6·15

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

+3.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapEagles
  • -0.031EPA / play+0.004
  • 42.9%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.022EPA / dropback+0.039
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.055
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.13CPOE-1.08
  • 41.3%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 54.8%Red-zone TD rate50.9%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.73
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PHI are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15PIT @ PHI13–27PHI
2022 · W8PIT @ PHI13–35PHI
2020 · W5PHI @ PIT29–38PIT
2016 · W3PIT @ PHI3–34PHI
2012 · W5PHI @ PIT14–16PIT
2004 · W9PHI @ PIT3–27PIT
2000 · W11PHI @ PIT26–23PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001056Turnover0–0
PITQ1 9:301156Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 2:511380Touchdown3–7
PITQ2 9:2357Turnover3–7
PHIQ2 5:54632Field goal3–10
PITQ2 2:363-10Turnover3–10
PHIQ2 1:5132Turnover3–10
PITQ2 1:37513Field goal6–10
PHIQ2 0:1300End of half6–10
PITQ3 15:0036Punt6–10
PHIQ3 13:5521Turnover6–10
PITQ3 13:1031Punt6–10
PHIQ3 11:06947Punt6–10
PITQ3 6:23422Punt6–10
PHIQ3 3:443-4Punt6–10
PITQ3 2:03614Punt6–10
PHIQ4 14:4231Punt6–10
PITQ4 13:4535Punt6–10
PHIQ4 12:16525Punt6–10
PITQ4 9:353-1Safety6–12
PHIQ4 8:0024Punt6–12
PHIQ4 7:44413Punt6–12
PHIQ4 5:4300Punt6–12
PITQ4 5:34321Turnover6–12
PITQ4 3:523-5Turnover6–12
PHIQ4 3:2935Field goal6–15
PITQ4 2:26851Turnover on downs6–15
PHIQ4 0:3500End of half6–15

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger13/2513101
Byron Leftwich4/76000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker13201.50
Mewelde Moore166.00
Ben Roethlisberger461.50
Carey Davis111.00

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb24/3519611
Kevin Kolb2/31801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Correll Buckhalter10434.30
Brian Westbrook5122.40
Lorenzo Booker5112.20
DeSean Jackson111.00
Donovan McNabb2-2-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

39.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.01