Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
+6.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.111
- 40.7%Success rate45.2%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.124EPA / rush+0.056
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.7%
- +3.65CPOE+6.20
- 39.7%Third-down rate42.4%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.86Points / drive2.46
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–3 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PHI are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/22 | 128 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Austin III | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 6 | 22 | 1 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 25/32 | 290 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 19 | 65 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 11 | 110 | 1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 11 | 12 | 109 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.68
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.38