2024 · Week 15

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Russell Wilson

13·27

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -5.5

Total

43

Model margin

+6.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapEagles
  • -0.027EPA / play+0.111
  • 40.7%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.124EPA / rush+0.056
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +3.65CPOE+6.20
  • 39.7%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.46
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PHI are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W8PIT @ PHI13–35PHI
2020 · W5PHI @ PIT29–38PIT
2016 · W3PIT @ PHI3–34PHI
2012 · W5PHI @ PIT14–16PIT
2008 · W3PIT @ PHI6–15PHI
2004 · W9PHI @ PIT3–27PIT
2000 · W11PHI @ PIT26–23PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–PHI
PITQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:29654Field goal0–3
PITQ1 9:5632Punt0–3
PHIQ1 8:19624Turnover0–3
PITQ1 5:063-11Punt0–3
PITQ1 4:1337Field goal3–3
PHIQ1 3:42670Touchdown3–10
PITQ1 1:13510Punt3–10
PHIQ2 13:40945Touchdown3–17
PITQ2 9:071155Touchdown10–17
PHIQ2 2:343-9Punt10–17
PITQ2 1:17414Field goal13–17
PHIQ2 0:371-8End of half13–17
PHIQ3 15:001452Field goal13–20
PITQ3 7:52444Turnover13–20
PHIQ3 5:501374Touchdown13–27
PITQ4 14:17739Punt13–27
PHIQ4 10:2919100End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson14/2212810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris6142.30
Russell Wilson4133.30
Jaylen Warren4123.00
Cordarrelle Patterson294.50
Justin Fields188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Austin III55650
Pat Freiermuth36221
Ben Skowronek11170
Mike Williams12150
Najee Harris1170
Jaylen Warren1230
Scott Miller0100
Van Jefferson1200
Cordarrelle Patterson11-10

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts25/3229020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley19653.40
Jalen Hurts15453.01
Kenny Gainwell7202.90
DeVonta Smith111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown8111101
DeVonta Smith11121091
Kenny Gainwell33400
Grant Calcaterra11220
Saquon Barkley2290
Jahan Dotson0100
Johnny Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.9%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.68
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.38