2022 · Week 8

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

13·35

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

PHI -11

Total

43

Model margin

+3.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapEagles
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.100
  • 45.1%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.016EPA / dropback+0.121
  • +0.006EPA / rush+0.072
  • 7.9%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +1.33CPOE+2.05
  • 43.5%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.43
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PHI are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15PIT @ PHI13–27PHI
2020 · W5PHI @ PIT29–38PIT
2016 · W3PIT @ PHI3–34PHI
2012 · W5PHI @ PIT14–16PIT
2008 · W3PIT @ PHI6–15PHI
2004 · W9PHI @ PIT3–27PIT
2000 · W11PHI @ PIT26–23PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–PHI
PITQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:09968Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 9:231684Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 1:571274Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 12:4846Punt7–14
PHIQ2 10:0230Punt7–14
PITQ2 7:4730Punt7–14
PHIQ2 7:22360Touchdown7–21
PITQ2 6:131255Field goal10–21
PHIQ2 1:024-1Punt10–21
PITQ2 0:252-9End of half10–21
PHIQ3 15:00575Touchdown10–28
PITQ3 12:531574Field goal13–28
PHIQ3 5:55828Punt13–28
PITQ3 1:47949Turnover13–28
PHIQ4 13:30254Touchdown13–35
PITQ4 12:35719Punt13–35
PHIQ4 9:2442Punt13–35
PITQ4 7:06631Turnover13–35
PHIQ4 4:18642End of half13–35

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett25/3819101
Najee Harris1/1400
Chase Claypool1/1110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren6508.30
Kenny Pickett7375.30
Najee Harris8324.00
Steven Sims22110.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth47570
Chase Claypool46450
Diontae Johnson59350
Najee Harris66260
Jaylen Warren33250
Zach Gentry1130
George Pickens0300
Steven Sims23-10

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts19/2828540
Gardner Minshew1/22300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders9788.71
Boston Scott7213.00
Jalen Hurts2105.00
Kenny Gainwell133.00
Gardner Minshew1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown6101563
Dallas Goedert66640
Zach Pascal22571
DeVonta Smith58230
Kenny Gainwell1180
Quez Watkins0200
Jack Stoll0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.42