Closing spread
PHI -11
Total
43
Model margin
+3.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.100
- 45.1%Success rate47.9%
- +0.016EPA / dropback+0.121
- +0.006EPA / rush+0.072
- 7.9%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.33CPOE+2.05
- 43.5%Third-down rate46.2%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 1.65Points / drive2.43
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–3 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PHI are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 25/38 | 191 | 0 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1/1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 6 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 19/28 | 285 | 4 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1/2 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 9 | 78 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 10 | 156 | 3 |
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 2 | 57 | 1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.42