Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.017
- 46.0%Success rate43.8%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.121
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.74CPOE-0.81
- 41.9%Third-down rate38.3%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.24Points / drive1.86
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–3 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PHI are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/44 | 257 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Daryl Richardson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 12 | 18 | 140 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 23/31 | 301 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Smallwood | 17 | 79 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Kenjon Barner | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 6 | 128 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.00