2016 · Week 3

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

3·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-1.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapEagles
  • +0.085EPA / play-0.017
  • 46.0%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.121
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.74CPOE-0.81
  • 41.9%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.24Points / drive1.86
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PHI are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15PIT @ PHI13–27PHI
2022 · W8PIT @ PHI13–35PHI
2020 · W5PHI @ PIT29–38PIT
2012 · W5PHI @ PIT14–16PIT
2008 · W3PIT @ PHI6–15PHI
2004 · W9PHI @ PIT3–27PIT
2000 · W11PHI @ PIT26–23PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–PHI
PITQ1 15:001057Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 8:49663Field goal0–3
PITQ1 5:29519Punt0–3
PHIQ1 3:101277Touchdown0–10
PITQ2 12:04761Field goal3–10
PHIQ2 7:401054Field goal3–13
PITQ2 2:25416Punt3–13
PHIQ2 1:33621Punt3–13
PITQ2 0:2710End of half3–13
PHIQ3 15:00380Touchdown3–20
PITQ3 12:54837Turnover on downs3–20
PHIQ3 10:43852Touchdown3–27
PITQ3 5:4576Turnover3–27
PHIQ3 3:16426Touchdown3–34
PITQ3 1:52410Punt3–34
PHIQ3 0:38618Punt3–34
PITQ4 11:31616Turnover on downs3–34
PHIQ4 9:35418Punt3–34
PHIQ4 7:0800Punt3–34
PITQ4 7:07319Turnover3–34
PITQ4 5:5849Turnover3–34
PHIQ4 4:35617Punt3–34
PITQ4 0:2911End of half3–34

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/4425701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams8212.60
Ben Roethlisberger177.00
Daryl Richardson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown12181400
Sammie Coates34500
Eli Rogers25320
DeAngelo Williams47230
Jesse James24100
Markus Wheaton1520
Darrius Heyward-Bey0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz23/3130120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wendell Smallwood17794.61
Kenjon Barner8425.31
Carson Wentz11010.00
Darren Sproles2-1-0.50
Ryan Mathews2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Sproles661281
Brent Celek34610
Dorial Green-Beckham34330
Nelson Agholor33210
Josh Huff45200
Trey Burton26190
Jordan Matthews23191

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-1.00