2012 · Week 5

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

14·16

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PIT -4

Total

44

Model margin

+6.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSteelers
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.007
  • 42.7%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.006EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.168
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +0.51CPOE+0.59
  • 37.1%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.66
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PIT are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15PIT @ PHI13–27PHI
2022 · W8PIT @ PHI13–35PHI
2020 · W5PHI @ PIT29–38PIT
2016 · W3PIT @ PHI3–34PHI
2008 · W3PIT @ PHI6–15PHI
2004 · W9PHI @ PIT3–27PIT
2000 · W11PHI @ PIT26–23PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–PIT
PHIQ1 15:001046Punt0–0
PITQ1 9:4631Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:47729Turnover0–0
PITQ1 5:36829Punt0–0
PHIQ1 1:0527Turnover0–0
PITQ1 0:0230Turnover on downs0–0
PITQ2 14:5110Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ2 14:3719Punt0–0
PHIQ2 14:2014Punt0–0
PHIQ2 13:363-3Punt0–0
PITQ2 12:221275Touchdown0–7
PHIQ2 5:01520Punt0–7
PITQ2 2:341272Field goal0–10
PHIQ2 0:0600End of half0–10
PITQ3 15:00838Punt0–10
PHIQ3 10:22850Touchdown7–10
PITQ3 6:3233Punt7–10
PHIQ3 5:2135Punt7–10
PITQ3 4:16851Field goal7–13
PHIQ4 14:511779Touchdown14–13
PITQ4 6:331474Field goal14–16

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick20/3017520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy16533.30
Mike Vick5163.20
Bryce Brown144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson48580
Jeremy Maclin58390
Jason Avant33340
LeSean McCoy45271
Brent Celek3591
Clay Harbor1180

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/3822010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall13685.20
Isaac Redman13413.20
Ben Roethlisberger3144.70
Chris Rainey100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown710860
Heath Miller45410
Rashard Mendenhall34331
Emmanuel Sanders37220
Mike Wallace28170
David Paulson1180
Jerricho Cotchery1170
Chris Rainey1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.0%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.43