Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
44
Model margin
+6.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.007
- 42.7%Success rate42.0%
- -0.006EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.168
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.51CPOE+0.59
- 37.1%Third-down rate41.9%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
- 1.18Points / drive1.66
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–3 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PIT are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 20/30 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/38 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 13 | 68 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| David Paulson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.43