Closing spread
PHI -1.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play+0.044
- 44.4%Success rate44.9%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.028
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.4%
- 37.2%Third-down rate44.9%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.97Points / drive1.83
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.027EPA / play allowed-0.133
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–3 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PIT are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 15/24 | 109 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Reno Mahe | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 11/18 | 183 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 33 | 149 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 1 |
| Willie Parker | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.66