2000 · Week 11

Final / OT

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

26·23

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Three Rivers Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 47°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

33

Model margin

+1.2est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSteelers
  • -0.003EPA / play-0.044
  • 40.3%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback-0.014
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.076
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.9%
  • 41.3%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 52.6%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.37
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
  • -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.119

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PIT are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15PIT @ PHI13–27PHI
2022 · W8PIT @ PHI13–35PHI
2020 · W5PHI @ PIT29–38PIT
2016 · W3PIT @ PHI3–34PHI
2012 · W5PHI @ PIT14–16PIT
2008 · W3PIT @ PHI6–15PHI
2004 · W9PHI @ PIT3–27PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–PIT
PITQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:3330Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:08516Punt0–0
PHIQ1 10:54949Punt0–0
PITQ1 6:22830Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 2:4839Field goal3–0
PITQ1 2:0438Punt3–0
PHIQ1 0:211425Touchdown10–0
PITQ2 11:4731Punt10–0
PHIQ2 10:2839Punt10–0
PITQ2 8:291350Field goal10–3
PHIQ2 2:5931Punt10–3
PITQ2 1:48761Field goal10–6
PHIQ2 0:221-2End of half10–6
PHIQ3 15:00748Field goal13–6
PITQ3 12:53941Punt13–6
PHIQ3 8:453-7Punt13–6
PITQ3 7:483-3Punt13–6
PHIQ3 5:4830Punt13–6
PITQ3 5:22761Touchdown13–13
PHIQ3 3:193-5Punt13–13
PITQ3 1:3147Punt13–13
PHIQ4 14:1153Opp touchdown13–20
PITQ4 12:5600Opp touchdown13–20
PHIQ4 12:56828Missed field goal13–20
PITQ4 9:041144Field goal13–23
PHIQ4 3:42444Touchdown20–23
PITQ4 2:2900Field goal20–23
PHIQ4 2:29949Field goal23–23
PHIOT739Field goal26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb26/5521320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stanley Pritchett7497.00
Donovan McNabb5275.40
Darnell Autry771.00
Brian Mitchell242.00
Torrance Small111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrance Small39420
Chad Lewis512410
Cecil Martin23350
Darnell Autry37310
Stanley Pritchett67300
Charles Johnson410180
Brian Mitchell22141
Jeff Thomason1321
Todd Pinkston0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart14/3115901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis301344.51
Richard Huntley4317.80
Kordell Stewart3175.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtney Hawkins48710
Troy Edwards25250
Bobby Shaw11250
Hines Ward24220
Richard Huntley1150
Jerome Bettis2340
Plaxico Burress1540
Matt Cushing1130
Mark Bruener0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.24