Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
33
Model margin
+1.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play-0.044
- 40.3%Success rate38.6%
- +0.063EPA / dropback-0.014
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- 41.3%Third-down rate37.4%
- 52.6%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.62Points / drive1.37
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–3 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PIT are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 26/55 | 213 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanley Pritchett | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Darnell Autry | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrance Small | 3 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 5 | 12 | 41 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Darnell Autry | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 6 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 4 | 10 | 18 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Todd Pinkston | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 14/31 | 159 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 30 | 134 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Richard Huntley | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtney Hawkins | 4 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Cushing | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.24