Closing spread
PIT -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.035
- 41.8%Success rate44.0%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.4%
- -4.93CPOE-0.90
- 36.0%Third-down rate42.1%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
- 1.61Points / drive2.12
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–3 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PIT are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 20/35 | 258 | 2 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 1/1 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 11 | 80 | 7.3 | 2 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Fulgham | 10 | 13 | 152 | 1 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| John Hightower | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27/34 | 239 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 63 | 31.5 | 0 |
| James Conner | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Benny Snell | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Anthony McFarland | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Claypool | 7 | 11 | 110 | 3 |
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| James Washington | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
40.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.36