2020 · Week 5

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

29·38

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PIT -7.5

Total

44

Model margin

+4.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSteelers
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.035
  • 41.8%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.134
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -4.93CPOE-0.90
  • 36.0%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.12
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 5–3 since 1999

PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PIT are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15PIT @ PHI13–27PHI
2022 · W8PIT @ PHI13–35PHI
2016 · W3PIT @ PHI3–34PHI
2012 · W5PHI @ PIT14–16PIT
2008 · W3PIT @ PHI6–15PHI
2004 · W9PHI @ PIT3–27PIT
2000 · W11PHI @ PIT26–23PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–PIT
PHIQ1 15:003-8Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:0361Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:5735Punt0–0
PITQ1 8:111649Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 1:04375Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 0:07775Touchdown7–14
PHIQ2 11:491061Touchdown14–14
PITQ2 6:17937Field goal14–17
PHIQ2 1:57963End of half14–17
PITQ3 15:00675Touchdown14–24
PHIQ3 13:0120Turnover14–24
PITQ3 12:44512Touchdown14–31
PHIQ3 10:32849Touchdown22–31
PITQ3 5:58619Punt22–31
PHIQ3 1:541085Touchdown29–31
PITQ4 11:271152Turnover29–31
PHIQ4 6:19616Missed field goal29–31
PITQ4 3:18438Touchdown29–38
PHIQ4 2:594-10Turnover29–38
PITQ4 2:10311End of half29–38

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz20/3525822
Jalen Hurts1/11800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders11807.32
Carson Wentz4112.80
Boston Scott133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Fulgham10131521
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside11370
Greg Ward45261
Miles Sanders24190
Richard Rodgers11180
John Hightower26180
Zach Ertz1660

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger27/3423930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray-Ray McCloud26331.50
James Conner15442.91
Benny Snell7192.70
Chase Claypool362.01
Anthony McFarland362.00
Ben Roethlisberger2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chase Claypool7111103
Eric Ebron56430
JuJu Smith-Schuster45280
James Washington34250
James Conner33190
Ray-Ray McCloud33120
Vance McDonald1140
Diontae Johnson11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

40.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.36